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Growth paths and survival chances

PublicationArticle (with peer review)
Alex Coad, David J. Storey, Företagandets villkor, Företagstillväxt, Gambler's ruin theory, Julian Frankish, Richard G. Roberts, Start-ups, Tillväxt

Abstract

This paper links new firm survival with growth, with a focus on the patterns in firms’ growth paths. We theorise a Gambler’s Ruin framework by arguing that new firm performance is best modelled as a random walk process, but that survival is nonrandom and depends primarily on the stock of accumulated resources. A firm’s resources are either there when the business begins or are generated by successful periods — ‘wins’. The empirical section tracks, over six years, the sales and survival/non-survival of 6247 UK start-ups which all began trading in the same quarter of 2004. We do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths, because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability. However, we observe that growth paths influence subsequent survival. Controlling for lagged size, we observe that longer lags of growth, and even start-up size, have significant effects on survival.

Related content: Working Paper No. 204

Coad, A., Frankish, J., Roberts, R. G., & Storey, D. J. (2013). Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler’s Ruin theory.Journal of Business Venturing, 28(5), 615-632. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2012.06.002

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Growth paths and survival chances
Artikel (med peer review)Publication
Coad, A., Frankish, J., Roberts, R. G., & Storey, D. J.
Publication year

2013

Abstract

This paper links new firm survival with growth, with a focus on the patterns in firms’ growth paths. We theorise a Gambler’s Ruin framework by arguing that new firm performance is best modelled as a random walk process, but that survival is nonrandom and depends primarily on the stock of accumulated resources. A firm’s resources are either there when the business begins or are generated by successful periods — ‘wins’. The empirical section tracks, over six years, the sales and survival/non-survival of 6247 UK start-ups which all began trading in the same quarter of 2004. We do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths, because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability. However, we observe that growth paths influence subsequent survival. Controlling for lagged size, we observe that longer lags of growth, and even start-up size, have significant effects on survival.

Related content: Working Paper No. 204

Effects of employees’ opportunities to influence in-store music on sales: Evidence from a field experiment
Article (with peer review)Publication
Daunfeldt, S.-O., Moradi, J., Rudholm, N., Öberg, C.
Publication year

2021

Abstract

The effects of in-store music on consumer behavior have attracted much attention in the marketing literature, but surprisingly few studies have investigated in-store music in relation to employees. By conducting a field experiment in eight Filippa K fashion stores in Stockholm, Sweden, we investigate whether it is beneficial for store owners to give employees more opportunities to influence the in-store music. We randomly assigned the stores into a treatment group and a control group, with the employees in the treatment stores having the opportunity to influence the in-store music through an app developed by Soundtrack Your Brand (SYB). The experiment lasted 56 weeks and sales data were also gathered 22 weeks before the experiment, resulting in a total of 4626 observations. Our results show that sales decreased by 6% when the employees had the opportunity to influence the music played in the store, and the effect is driven by a reduction in sales of women’s clothing. Interviews with the employees revealed that they had diverse music preferences, frequently changed songs, and preferred to play high-intensity songs. Employees thus seem to make choices regarding the in-store music that reduce sales, implying that store owners might want to limit their opportunities to influence the background music.

Nominated procurement and the indirect control of nominated sub-suppliers: Evidence from the Sri Lankan apparel supply chain
Article (with peer review)Publication
Fontana, E., Öberg, C., Poblete, L.
Publication year

2021

Abstract

This article describes and discusses nominated procurement as a means through which buyers select sub-suppliers to achieve sustainability compliance upstream in emerging economies’ supply chains. Hence, it critically examines the ways buyers articulate nominated procurement and the unfolding supply chain consequences. Based on in-depth interviews and fieldwork in the Sri Lankan apparel supply chain, the findings indicate that buyers accomplish sustainability compliance among their sub-suppliers while prioritizing their own business agenda. In doing so, however, buyers perpetuate “suboptimal compliance” of raw material suppliers and “sandwiching” of direct suppliers as harmful consequences on the supply chain. These consequences link theoretically with commercial, geographical, compliance and extended-compliance pressure. This article contributes to the advancement of the Sustainable Supply Chain Management literature by theorizing about nominated procurement, direct and indirect pressure, and pointing to the supply chain consequences beyond achievements in sustainability compliance.

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