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Working Paper No. 14. Är inflationen på väg tillbaka?

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Deflation, Företagandets villkor, Inflation, Per Hortlund
Working Paper No. 14.
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Abstract

Penninginflation är principiellt oriktig och kan liknas vid forna tiders myntförsämring. Den förvränger alltid marknadsdata – Inte bara relativpriser, men även kassaflöden – vilket försämrar resursallokeringen. ”Deflation” i betydelsen prissänkningar är av ondo enbart om den beror på att penningmängden deflateras, men inte om den beror på produktivitetsökningar. I tänkandet i Akerlof, Dickens & Perry [2000] och Lundborg och Sacklén [2001,2002], saknas väsentliga ting som kreditmarknader, räntor, kapital och banker. Därmed blir det svårt att dra normativa slutsatser om nyttan eller onyttan av penninginflation. Vidare missar Akerlof m fl, Lundborg och Sacklén den rationella förväntningsrevolutionens viktigaste insikt, nämligen att Phillipssambandet gäller så länge man inte försöker utnyttja det. Deras resonemang att löntagarnas nästan-rationalitet vid låga inflationstal skapar en möjlighet att lura dem, kan möjligtvis gälla i länder med stor andel oorganiserad arbetskraft som USA och Kanada, men knappast i länder med starka fackföreningar som Sverige. Penninginflation kan minska arbetslösheten på kort sikt, men den ökar den på lång sikt. Därför bör inflationen avskaffas.

Hortlund, P. (2002). Är inflationen på väg tillbaka? Ratio Working Paper No. 14.


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