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Ratio Working Paper No. 202. Elections and Municipal Economic Outcomes, Sweden 1974-1994

PublicationWorking paper
Arbetslöshet, Erik Lakomaa, Företagandets villkor, Martin Korpi, Naturligt experiment, Politiska partier, Skattepolitik, Val
Working Paper No. 202.
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Abstract

In a 2008 article, Per Pettersson-Lidbom uses regression discontinuity to test for Swedish party effects on municipal taxation, spending and employment. His study is based on the assumptions that local coalitions only include nationally represented parties and are stable over the studied time period, 1974-1994. We have instead used a full population data set of actual ruling coalitions, allowing us to relax these assumptions and to include 935 previously undefined cases in the sample. Thereby, we can remove a systematic bias towards excluding center-right coalitions. Using the same estimator as Pettersson-Lidbom we are largely unable to replicate the results in his study. Where Pettersson-Lidbom finds significant party effects, we have found either no, or only weakly significant results.

For an updated version of this paper see Working Paper No. 240

Lakomaa, E. & Korpi, M. (2012). Elections and Municipal Economic Outcomes, Sweden 1974-1994: Alternative Data and Estimates. Ratio Working Paper No. 202.

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Ratio Working Paper No. 240: Bloc – party Politics and Economic Outcomes. What Are the Effects of Local Parties?
Working paperPublication
Lakomaa, E. & Korpi, M.
Publication year

2014

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

In a much cited 2008 article, Per Pettersson-Lidbom uses regression discontinuity to test for Swedish party effects on economic policies such as municipal taxation, spending and employment. We reassess the issue using the same estimator as Pettersson-Lidbom but new data on all factual coalitions, including minority coalitions as well as those previously deemed as undefined on a left and right wing political scale (constituting about 20 percent of the sample used in Pettersson-Lidbom’s study). This makes it possible to remove a systematic bias against centre-right coalitions in Pettersson-Lidbom’s study. We find that a majority of the previous findings stand, with sometimes even slightly stronger effects, but not as regards the proportional income tax rate and number of government employees per capita. Parties seem to matter for economic outcomes, but not always, and some parties more than others.

Ratio Working Paper No. 240: Bloc – party Politics and Economic Outcomes. What Are the Effects of Local Parties?
Working paperPublication
Lakomaa, E. & Korpi, M.
Publication year

2014

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

In a much cited 2008 article, Per Pettersson-Lidbom uses regression discontinuity to test for Swedish party effects on economic policies such as municipal taxation, spending and employment. We reassess the issue using the same estimator as Pettersson-Lidbom but new data on all factual coalitions, including minority coalitions as well as those previously deemed as undefined on a left and right wing political scale (constituting about 20 percent of the sample used in Pettersson-Lidbom’s study). This makes it possible to remove a systematic bias against centre-right coalitions in Pettersson-Lidbom’s study. We find that a majority of the previous findings stand, with sometimes even slightly stronger effects, but not as regards the proportional income tax rate and number of government employees per capita. Parties seem to matter for economic outcomes, but not always, and some parties more than others.

Ratio Working Paper No. 202. Elections and Municipal Economic Outcomes, Sweden 1974-1994
Working paperPublication
Lakomaa, E. & Korpi, M.
Publication year

2012

Abstract

In a 2008 article, Per Pettersson-Lidbom uses regression discontinuity to test for Swedish party effects on municipal taxation, spending and employment. His study is based on the assumptions that local coalitions only include nationally represented parties and are stable over the studied time period, 1974-1994. We have instead used a full population data set of actual ruling coalitions, allowing us to relax these assumptions and to include 935 previously undefined cases in the sample. Thereby, we can remove a systematic bias towards excluding center-right coalitions. Using the same estimator as Pettersson-Lidbom we are largely unable to replicate the results in his study. Where Pettersson-Lidbom finds significant party effects, we have found either no, or only weakly significant results.

For an updated version of this paper see Working paper No. 240

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