Fewer children and more older people: What happens to Sweden’s public finances?

Abstract

This report examines how falling fertility, longer life expectancy and changing migration patterns affect Sweden’s public finances. In the short term, fewer children can reduce spending on childcare, education and other services. Over time, smaller cohorts entering working age reduce the labour force and tax base, while a larger older population raises the dependency ratio. The report concludes that demographic development matters for long-run public finances and economic growth.

Hansson, Å., & Lundberg, K. (2026). Färre barn och fler äldre: Vad händer med Sveriges offentliga finanser? (Framtid med barn, 2026:6). Socialdepartementet.. Färre barn och fler äldre: Vad händer med Sveriges offentliga finanser?

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Reports

Who will finance Skåne’s future public welfare services?

Å. Hansson & L. Henriksson

Publication year

2026

Published in

KEFU skriftserie, no. 2026:3

Abstract

This report analyses how public welfare services in Skåne are financed in a decentralised system where municipalities and regions provide many services. It describes differences in tax capacity, demographics and socioeconomic conditions across municipalities, and the resulting dependence on state grants and equalisation. It also discusses how population ageing, falling fertility, labour mobility and taxation across several government levels can affect local tax bases and financing efficiency.

Article (without peer review)

Time to take the population question seriously

Åsa Hansson

Publication year

2026

Published in

Ekonomisk Debatt, 54(3)

Abstract

Sweden’s fertility rate reached a historic low in 2025. This article discusses the economic consequences of a shrinking and ageing population, including slower growth, pressure on public finances and a smaller tax base. It argues that the decline cannot be addressed through transfers alone: housing, labour market entry, family policy and the unequal costs and risks of parenthood also shape people’s decisions. The article calls for a broader discussion of the conditions that make family life and parenthood sustainable.

Article (with peer review)

Aging in place or moving on? Exploring older homeowners’ housing situation in the context of housing market dynamics and policy incentives

Dahlgren, D., Magnusson, L., Hansson, Å., Schmidt, S.M., Iwarsson, S. & Kylén, M.

Publication year

2026

Published in

Housing and Society

Abstract

Housing preferences in later life vary, and housing decisions are complex. While much attention has been paid to health and accessibility, less is known about how financial factors influence housing decisions among older homeowners. This qualitative study aimed to deepen understanding of how single-family homeowners aged 55 and older reason about their housing situation. We conducted focus groups with 30 participants from four Swedish municipalities, selected for their distinct demographic and housing market characteristics. Content analysis revealed a central theme: The many benefits of living in the current house outweigh economic and local housing market challenges. This theme emerged from four categories: (1) Desire to stay in place; (2) Discrimination toward older homeowners; (3) Local and national housing market conditions; (4) Reflecting on the future housing situation. The study demonstrates that preferences for aging in place are shaped by health status, emotional attachment, and financial concerns. Participants often viewed relocation as financially disadvantageous, and a limited supply of suitable housing and perceived lack of political prioritization further constrained their possibility of moving. These findings suggest a potential mismatch between housing policy goals and homeowners’ preferences, underlining the need for planning strategies that reflect local realities and support aging in place.

Fewer children and more older people: What happens… | Ratio

Fewer children and more older people: What happens to Sweden’s public finances?

Abstract

Fewer children and more older people: What happens to Sweden’s public finances?

Abstract

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Åsa Hansson