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PublicationArticle (with peer review)

Political failure: a missing piece in innovation policy analysis

Abstract

Within the field of innovation studies, researchers have identified systematic failures that hamper investment in R&D, innovation, and growth. Accordingly, researchers in this field often seek to provide policy recommendations on how to alleviate these failures. However, previous discussions have often been lacking considerations to the risks of political failures, meaning that policies fail to achieve their stated goals in a systematic manner. In response to this gap, this article aims to illustrate the concept of political failure and its relevance for innovation research. This is done by both discussing how political failure can impact innovation policy and by reviewing the prevalence of any discussions of political failure among top-ranked journals on innovation for the period 2010–2019, a total of 7161 articles. The results show that consideration of political failure is scarce, with a small number of papers that have a substantial analysis of political failures. If the awareness of political failures could be increased, this could lead to better policy recommendations with a more nuanced discussion of the risks and limitations of public policy.

The article can be accessed here.

Kärnä, A., Karlsson, J., Engberg, E., & Svensson, P. (2022). Political failure: a missing piece in innovation policy analysis. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1-32.

Details

Author: Kärnä, A., Karlsson, J., Engberg, E., & Svensson, P.
Publication year: 2022
Published in: Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1-32.

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Ph.D. student
Erik Engberg
erik.engberg@ratio.se

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Working Paper No. 380. Artificial Intelligence, hiring and employment: Job postings evidence from Sweden.

Engberg, E., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Sabolová, R., Schroeder, S.

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014-2022 and universal register data for Sweden. We construct a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.

Article (with peer review)

Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany

Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.

Publication year

2025

Published in

Research Policy

Abstract

As a first step, the study documents novel evidence on changes in tasks and skills within occupations in Germany over the past two decades. It further identifies a distinct relationship between ex ante occupational work content and ex post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation through robots. Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements than workers in occupations primarily exposed to robots, suggesting that AI and robots substitute for different types of tasks and skills. The study also shows that changes in the task and skill content of occupations are related to their initial exposure to these technologies. Finally, using individual labour market biographies, the analysis investigates the relationship between AI exposure and wages. By examining the dynamic effects of AI exposure over time, the study finds positive associations with wages, with nuanced differences across occupational groups, thereby providing further insight into the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

Artificial Intelligence for Public Use

Lodefalk, M.; Engberg, E.; Lidskog, R.; Tang, A.

Publication year

2025

Published in

Örebro University School of Business Working Paper

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic and societal impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the public sector, focusing on its potential to enhance productivity and mitigate labour shortages. Employing detailed administrative data and novel occupational exposure measures, we simulate future scenarios over a 20-year horizon, using Sweden as an illustrative case. Our findings indicate that advances in AI development and uptake could significantly alleviate projected labour shortages and enhance productivity. However, outcomes vary substantially across sectors and organisational types, driven by differing workforce compositions. Complementing the economic analysis, we identify key challenges that hinder AI’s effective deployment, including technical limitations, organisational barriers, regulatory ambiguity, and ethical risks such as algorithmic bias and lack of transparency. Drawing from an interdisciplinary conceptual framework, we argue that AI’s integration in the public sector must address these socio-technical and institutional factors comprehensively. To unlock AI’s full potential, substantial investments in technological infrastructure, human capital development, regulatory clarity, and robust governance mechanisms are essential. Our study thus contributes both novel economic evidence and an integrated societal perspective, informing strategies for sustainable and equitable public-sector digitalisation.