Jonas Grafström

Grafström, J., Poelzer, G., & Pettersson, J.

Barriers to circularity in the metals industry: an analytical framework of feedback and lock-in effects

Publication year

2025

Published in

Mineral Economics.

Abstract

The metals sector faces multiple and interconnected barriers to achieving circularity. This study examines steel, aluminum, and copper to illustrate how challenges vary between metals. While copper can often be recycled without quality loss, steel and aluminum face alloy-related limitations that drive downcycling and quality degradation. Using a matrix-based analytical framework, the study maps the interactions between economic, technological, institutional, and social constraints, distinguishing between primary drivers, secondary effects, feedback loops, and lock-in mechanisms. The results show strong reinforcing links between economic, technological, and institutional domains, with social factors playing a more indirect role. These findings align with observed industry patterns while adding a structured, quantitative perspective. By clarifying how different barriers combine and reinforce one another, the analysis identifies priority areas for intervention to advance metals recycling and support the transition toward a more circular economy.

Working Paper No. 385 The workload paradox: Will AIreduce academic labor?

Publication year

2025

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

Artificial intelligence is reshaping academia, but instead of liberating scholars, AI might keep them running faster just to stay in place. This paper theoretically explores how AI increases institutional expectations rather than reducing workload. Using a formal workload model, the study examines how automation affects academic tasks, revealing that while AI streamlines some processes, it also creates new responsibilities in research, publishing, and administration. A case study illustrates how scholars experience rising pressures to verify AI-generated work, adapt to changing publication norms, and meet intensifying institutional demands. The findings suggest that AI’s role in academia is not one only of simplification, but acceleration—a race where efficiency gains are quickly absorbed, where the pursuit of academic excellence becomes ever more demanding, and where scholars must continuously push forward, not to advance, but merely to avoid falling behind.

Working Paper No. 384 Vertical industrial policy: principles, practice and potential

Publication year

2025

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

This report investigates the rationale, implementation challenges, and evolving global context of vertical industrial policy, with a particular focus on Sweden. Against the backdrop of recent global crises—including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the analysis explores how governments have re-evaluated the role of state intervention to bolster economic resilience and strategic autonomy. The report distinguishes between horizontal and vertical approaches, where vertical policy targets specific sectors or technologies considered critical for national development, such as green technology, semiconductors, and renewable energy. Drawing on economic theory and empirical evidence, the report outlines the key justifications for vertical industrial policy, including market failures, coordination problems, and the under-provision of public goods. It also addresses the limitations and risks associated with such policies, including information asymmetries, rent-seeking, and political capture. A central contribution is a decision-making framework designed to help policymakers assess when vertical industrial intervention may be justified and how it can be designed to minimize inefficiencies and unintended consequences. While the report takes a cautiously critical stance toward vertical industrial policy, it acknowledges its potential when implemented with clear objectives, regular evaluations, and institutional safeguards. The analysis highlights the need for a balanced and flexible approach, especially in the context of green transitions and geopolitical fragmentation.

Jonas Grafström & Nils Karlson

Working Paper No. 383 Insider activism in the forest industry: An empirical public choice analysis

Publication year

2025

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series

Abstract

Insider activism—where bureaucrats use discretionary power to advance own ideological goals—has significant implications for regulatory stability and property rights security. Using the Swedish forestry industry as a case study, the purpose of this study is to investigate if insider activism affects the Swedish forestry sector and how such possible regulatory uncertainty influences economic decision-making. Assembled survey data suggest that forest owners perceive regulatory enforcement as unpredictable, leading to defensive actions such as premature harvesting to preempt restrictive future regulations. To explain these patterns, we apply public choice theory and a game-theoretic approach, demonstrating how bureaucratic drift, regulatory ratcheting, and time-inconsistency problems contribute to persistent distortions in forestry policies. Policy wise, the findings emphasize the need for judicial review, regulatory impact assessments, and clearer legislative mandates to reduce enforcement uncertainty and improve institutional trust. This research advances discussions on bureaucratic incentives, regulatory capture, and legal certainty in environmental policy.

Working Paper No. 379: Europe’s Future Industrial Landscape: A Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

Increased gas prices, constraints in nuclear power generation, and diminished hydroelectric production have introduced challenges for Europe, coinciding with an emerging green industrialization. Utilizing data from the European Commission and Eurostat, we introduce the Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index, a tool designed to help assessing locations of future green industrial developments. Our findings highlight Sweden, Finland, and France as probable destinations for green industrial projects. A revealing geographical divide where northern European countries rank higher compared to their southern counterparts. This analysis enhances our understanding of Europe’s changing industrial landscape amidst volatile electricity prices, offering insights for policymakers and investors. An overarching conclusion of the paper is that well-crafted energy policies help mitigate the economic impacts of energy price fluctuations on energy-intensive industries, ensuring that Europe’s industrial landscape remain competitive.

Economic freedom and environmental performance

Graftström, J.

Publication year

2024

Published in

Handbook of Research on Economic Freedom. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.

Abstract

In this chapter, the relationship between economic freedom and environmental performance is scrutinized. The analysis relies on comparing countries’ standing in the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) of the Yale Centre for Environmental Law & Policy with two indexes of economic freedom, one developed by the Fraser Institute (Economic Freedom of the World index), and the other by the Heritage Foundation (Index of Economic Freedom). Whether economic freedom is good or bad for the environment depends on how it affects incentives, productive efforts, and effective resource use. Greater economic freedom can both harm and help environmental performance. It is a complicated relationship, but high economic freedom generally goes hand in hand with high scores in the EPI.

Diverging or converging technology capabilities in the European Union?

Grafström, J., & Alm, C.

Publication year

2024

Published in

The Journal of Technology Transfer

Abstract

The ongoing debate among economists regarding the presence of economic convergence or divergence has been reignited. This paper aims to dissect the extent of technological divergence or convergence among European Union member states, evaluating the effectiveness of the EU’s pronounced goals for convergence. Defining a countries technological level is not straightforward, this study examines six key indicators: (a) scientific journal publications, (b) total patents, (c) high tech exports, (d) Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, (e) government budget on R&D, and (f) human resources in science and technology as a share of the active population. Employing both time-series and longitudinal methodologies, the analysis spans from 2000 to 2019. The findings reveal a gradual catching-up trend in the inventive capabilities across the EU. This modest pace of convergence necessitates a critical reassessment by policymakers of the current EU convergence strategies to ensure they effectively foster technological parity among member states.

Ratio Working Paper No. 373: Who Wants to Work from Home? A Demographic Study of Attitudes Towards Remote Work

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

This report examines preferences for remote work among office workers in Sweden, based on age, geography, and gender. The report is based on a survey of over 1,000 working individuals identified as office workers. The survey was conducted in April 2022. The number of remote workdays varies with age; the youngest group (18–25 years) works remotely 1.2 days a week, and the oldest group (49–64 years) works 2 days. There are significant geographical differences in home working days, with a difference of up to 0.7 days per week depending on location. 4 out of 10 would decline a job offer where remote work is not an option.

The results indicate significant differences in remote work preferences among workers, suggesting that employers should consider individual preferences and create flexible work models to accommodate various needs and wishes. A diversity of working methods can be advantageous for promoting a positive work environment and productivity regardless of age.

Grafström, J. & Roth, D. (2024). Shifts in Doctoral Education: Analyzing the Rising Popularity of Job Market Papers in Swedish Economics Doctoral Dissertations. Ratio Working Paper No. 375.

Ratio Working Paper No. 375: Shifts in Doctoral Education: Analyzing the Rising Popularity of Job Market Papers in Swedish Economics Doctoral Dissertations

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

This study examines the evolving structures of dissertations among 615 individuals who earned their PhDs in economics from Swedish institutions between 2010 and 2023. The findings indicate a shift away from traditional compilation dissertation, which typically consists of 4-5 papers intended for journal publication, towards the “Job Market Paper” model which consists of three papers. While over 70 percent of dissertations presented in 2010 were compilation dissertations, the number dropped to 43 percent in 2023. The structure of dissertations has varied over time, with a trend towards fewer included papers, peaking at 4.2 papers per dissertation in 2011 and dropping to 3.56 in 2023. Throughout the period, men wrote JMP dissertations slightly more frequently than women, with 40 percent compared to 35 percent for women. Many PhD students are unaware of how the format of their dissertation can affect future career prospects. The Swedish dissertation layout differs significantly between and within institutions. This shift is part of a wider adjustment in doctoral training, responding to increased international competition and changes in the academic job market. The study also discusses the implications of these trends for gender equality and institutional practices, suggesting that the evolving dissertation formats are a strategic response to both external market conditions and internal academic policies.

Working Paper No. 369: Spark of Transformation: The Impact of Electricity Prices on Europe’s Industrial Landscape– Introducing the Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index (GILAI)

Publication year

2023

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of volatile electricity prices on the industrial landscape of Europe. The record-breaking prices experienced in the European wholesale electricity market throughout 2022, along with contributing factors such as the surging gas prices, nuclear power limitations, and reduced hydroelectric output, present complexities and challenges to Europe at the same time as a new wave of green industrialization is forming. Drawing from European Commission- and Eurostat data a new tool, the Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index (GILAI) is introduced that should be helpful for predicting future green industrial establishments. The top three countries for green industrial establishments in Europe are Sweden, Finland, and Austria. A North/South European split with northern countries achieving higher rankings, while southern countries grapple with several factors. Through this analysis, the aim is to contribute to a better understanding of the evolving industrial landscape in Europe and identify strategies to enhance industry competitiveness and sustainability in the face of fluctuating electricity prices.

Grafström, J., Söderholm, P., Gawel, E., Lehmann, P., & Strunz, S.

Government support to renewable energy R&D: drivers and strategic interactions among EU Member States

Publication year

2023

Published in

Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 32(1), 1-24.

Abstract

Although the climate challenge requires proactive policies that spur innovation in the renewable energy sector, various countries commit vastly different levels of support for renewable energy R&D. This paper addresses the question why this may be the case. Specifically, the objective is to analyse the determinants of government support to renewable energy R&D in the European Union (EU), and, in doing this, we devote particular attention to the question of whether the level of this support tends to converge or diverge across EU Member States. The investigation relies on a data set of 12 EU Member States and a bias-corrected dynamic panel data estimator. We test for the presence of conditional β-convergence, and the impacts of energy dependence and electricity regulation on government R&D efforts. The findings display divergence in terms of government support to renewable energy R&D, and this result is robust across various model specifications and key assumptions. The analysis also indicates that countries with a low energy-import dependence and deregulated electricity markets tend to experience lower growth rates in government renewable energy R&D. The paper ends by discussing some implications of the results, primarily from an EU perspective.

The article can be accessed here.

Grafström, J., & Poudineh, R.

No evidence of counteracting policy effects on European solar power invention and diffusion

Publication year

2023

Published in

Energy Policy, 172, 113319.

Abstract

In this paper, the questions of how support policies affect invention and diffusion of solar PV technology and whether the effect is heterogeneous and counteracting are investigated in order to help policy makers produce a better policy mix. The policies (and policy proxies) investigated are Feed-in-tariffs (FITs), Public R&D stock and flow, Environmental tax, and Environmental Policy Stringency Index. The policies are within the control of national government and no EU level policies are investigated. Evaluating policies on several dimensions is highly important since there is a risk that policies can promote one aspect of technological progress such as invention but derail diffusion. A Schumpeterian technological development approach is utilised on a panel dataset covering 23 European countries between 2000 and 2019. Two econometric approaches are employed, a negative binomial regression model is used to assess inventions and a panel data fixed effect regression is used for the diffusion model. The empirical findings suggest that no counteracting policy effects were present.

Less from More: China Built Wind Power, but Gained Little Electricity

Publication year

2022

Published in

Questioning the Entrepreneurial State, 219.

Abstract

This chapter investigates Chinese wind power development and concludes that innovation cannot be pushed by the efforts of many, and that when the state clarifies directions and objectives, these can be achieved but with severe and unexpected side effects. Two topics are explored: wind curtailment and low technological development, both examples of unproductive entrepreneurship induced by government policies. The goal of wind power capacity expansion leads to construction (i.e., generation capacity) but little electricity. Examples of failures include low grid connectivity with, some years averaging 15% of generation capacity broken or unconnected to the grid. A key lesson for Europe is that forced innovation often amounts to little and that the old saying holds up: “no plan survives contact with reality.”

The book can be downloaded here.

Grafström, J., M. Arfwedson, S. & Svensson, S.

Fjärvärmemonopolen stoppar en cirkulär ekonomi

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ekonomisk debatt, 2022(5).

Abstract

Grafström, J., M. Arfwedson, S. & Svensson, S. (2022). Fjärvärmemonopolen stoppar en cirkulär ekonomi. Ekonomisk debatt, 2022(5).

Allstrin, S., Grafström, J., Stern, C. & Weidenstedt, L.

Working Paper No. 357: Managing Work from Anywhere: Six Points to Consider for HR Professionals

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper.

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study is to assist human resource practitioners, leaders, and managers in their decision-making processes regarding the future of remote work by contributing with insights into, and synthesis of, existing research regarding working from home and working from anywhere.
Design/methodology/approach: We conducted a general review of the international literature in the fields of remote work, work from home, and work from anywhere with the aim to inductively discern themes research hitherto has dealt with.
Findings: We identified three larger themes: (1) productivity and efficiency, (2) remote leadership, and (3) work environment and work-life balance, each incorporating subthemes that contribute to a greater understanding of relevant topics in the context of remote work. In order to provide relevant information regarding the research front and guidance towards worthwhile considerations for HR professionals, leaders, and managers, we summarize our results in six concise points, each suggesting relevant questions to assess in relation to the future of remote work.
Originality: Companies will be forced to determine how to approach the post-Covid era and establish a new status quo regarding the future of office work that, ideally, will be mutually beneficial for employers and employees—whether it incorporates office, remote, or hybrid work. To the best of our knowledge a general review of the literature on remote work with specific, evidence-based, points to consider for HR professionals has not yet been undertaken.

Long, V., & Grafström, J.

What prevents machine learning from transforming industries?

Publication year

2021

Published in

Technological Change and Industrial Transformation.

Abstract

The industrial utilization of machine learning (ML) technology is still in its infancy. This chapter provides empirical insights on how ML has been deployed in three firms and which forces are at work in this transformation. It is clear that two complementary advancements are needed to make ML generally useful: while ML technology thrives on access to big and varied datasets, the first advance is a reduction in the laborious work of manually cleaning, sorting and labelling the data, which defines how knowledge creation, technology and organization are interrelated. The second advance is to find sensible collaborative modes of data access and sharing, which challenges the very boundaries and interdependence of firms since the value of data for training ML algorithms depends on access to others’ data.

Long, V., & Grafström, J. (2021). What prevents machine learning from transforming industries?. In Technological Change and Industrial Transformation (pp. 125-140). Routledge.

Aldieri, L., Grafström, J., & Vinci, C. P.

The Effect of Marshallian and Jacobian Knowledge Spillovers on Jobs in the Solar, Wind and Energy Efficiency Sector

Publication year

2021

Published in

Energies, 14(14), 4269.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to establish if Marshallian and Jacobian knowledge spillovers affect job creation in the green energy sector. Whether these two effects exist is important for the number of jobs created in related fields and jobs pushed away in other sectors. In the analysis, the production efficiency, in terms of jobs and job spillovers, from inventions in solar, wind and energy efficiency, is explored through data envelopment analysis (DEA), based on the Malmquist productivity index, and tobit regression. A panel dataset of American and European firms over the period of 2002–2017 is used. The contribution to the literature is to show the role of the spillovers from the same technology sector (Marshallian externalities), and of the spillovers from more diversified activity (Jacobian externalities). Since previous empirical evidence concerning the innovation effects on the production efficiency is yet weak, the paper attempts to bridge this gap. The empirical findings suggest negative Marshallian externalities, while Jacobian externalities have no statistical impact on the job creation process. The findings are of strategic importance for governments who are developing industrial strategies for renewable energy.

Aldieri, L., Grafström, J., & Vinci, C. P. (2021). The Effect of Marshallian and Jacobian Knowledge Spillovers on Jobs in the Solar, Wind and Energy Efficiency Sector. Energies, 14(14), 4269.

An Anatomy of Failure – Wind Power Development in China

Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics

Publication year

2021

Published in

Abstract

China is currently the world’s largest installer of wind power. However, with twice the installed wind capacity compared to the United States in 2015, the Chinese produce less power. The question is: Why is this the case? This article shows that Chinese grid connectivity is low, Chinese firms have few international patents, and that export is low even though production capacity far exceeds domestic production needs. Using the tools of Austrian economics, China’s wind power development from 1980 to 2016 is documented and analyzed from three angles: (a) planning and knowledge problems, (b) unproductive entrepreneurship, and (c) bureaucracy and government policy. From a theoretical standpoint, both a planning problem and an entrepreneurial problem are evident where governmental policies create misallocation of resources and a hampering of technological development.

Grafström, J. & Poudineh, R.

Ratio Working Paper No. 347: A review of problems associated with learning curves for solar and wind power technologies

Publication year

2021

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

The learning curve concept, which relates historically observed reductions in the cost of a technology to the number of units produced or the capacity cumulatively installed, has been widely adopted to analyse the technological progress of renewable resources, such as solar PV and wind power, and to predict their future penetration. Learning curves were originally an empirical tool to evaluate learning-by-doing in manufacturing, and the jump to analysis of country-level technological change in renewable energy is an extension that requires careful consideration. This paper provides a review of the problems associated with learning curves for solar and wind power technologies. Issues such as whether the past cost reductions affect the future, learning curve specification problems, changing price ratios and econometric issues are discussed. Learning curves have a place in research, but there are several pitfalls that researchers should be careful not to overlook.

Grafström, J. & Aasma, S.

Breaking Circular Economy Barriers

Publication year

2021

Published in

Journal of Cleaner Production

Abstract

Despite high estimated gains of a circular economy implementation, progress on the macro, meso and micro level is sluggish. The purpose of this paper is to examine, from a theoretical economics perspective, how four barriers – technological, market, institutional and cultural – can prevent the implementation of a circular economy. The barriers that currently hinder a circular economy from developing are identified and a mapping of these barriers is performed to understand how they are interdependent and entangled. The conclusion is that even small barriers could stop the emergence of a circular economy. Even though a circular economy is different from our traditional “linear” economy, the theoretical analysis in this paper gives no reason to believe that a circular economy will not follow the same rules as a traditional economy. There will be property rights, rule of law and price signals guiding the economy. If some of the essential parts of a market are lacking, a weaker circular economy than otherwise possible will materialize.

Book

Mer för mindre? Tillväxt och hållbarhet i Sverige

Grafström, J. & Sandström, C.

Publication year

2020

Published in

Ratio

Abstract

Går det att förena ekonomisk tillväxt med hållbar
utveckling? Den här boken beskriver hur miljöskadliga utsläpp och användningen av naturresurser i
Sverige har förändrats över tid.
Sedan 1990 har Sveriges befolkning ökat med drygt
1,6 miljoner och ekonomin nästan fördubblats. Samtidigt har koldioxidutsläppen minskat med 27 procent mellan åren 1990 och 2018, konsumtionen av
el, vatten och energi har stått still vilket innebär att
ekonomin är nästan dubbelt så effektiv. Av de 26
luftföroreningar Naturvårdsverket mätt sedan 1990
har 24 gått ner fram till 2017. I många fall har det
skett mer än en halvering.

Grafström, J., Paulson, R., Sandström, C. & Wieslander, A.

Tillväxt och hållbar utveckling i Sverige – fick Lindbeck (1974) rätt?

Publication year

2020

Published in

Ekonomisk Debatt

Abstract

Aldieri, L., Grafström, J. & Paolo Vinci, C.

Ratio Working Paper No. 340: Job Creation in the Wind Power Sector Through Marshallian and Jacobian Knowledge Spillovers

Publication year

2020

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

The empirical evidence concerning the job-creation impact of wind power technology through knowledge spillovers is yet poor. Our objective is to contribute to the literature and bridge this gap. Specifically, our analysis explores to what extent investments in innovation activities of one firm affect the neighbouring firms’ generation of knowledge spillovers in the same sector (intra-industry) or to different sectors (inter-industry) and how this complex knowledge diffusion process impacts the employment dynamics. The econometric analysis relies on a sector-based panel dataset for the USA, Europe, and Japan between 2002 and 2017. The empirical findings suggest that there were negative employment spillovers from the same technology sector (Marshallian externalities) while the spillovers from more diversified activity (Jacobian externalities) have a positive impact on job-creation. The findings have relevant policy implications for governments who are developing an industrial strategy for wind power technology.

Grafström, J. & Aasma, S.

Ratio Working Paper No. 338 Breaking Circular Economy Barriers

Publication year

2020

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Despite high estimated economic gains the implementation of a circular economy (CE) in most areas is generally slow. The purpose of this paper is therefore to examine the potential causes to this sluggish implementation and to discuss and illustrate how different types of barriers (technological, market, institutional and cultural) can prevent the further implementation of a CE. We conduct a systematic literature review where academic articles and “grey literature” on the barriers to a CE transition are analysed and classified into technological, market/economic, institutional/regulatory, and cultural/social barriers. We approach the research problem in a twofold way. Firstly, we recognize the barriers that currently seem to hinder a CE from developing. Secondly, we map these barriers to better understand how they are interdependent and entangled. Our main conclusion is that even small barriers can stop the emergence of a CE.

Ratio Working Paper No. 336 An Austrian economic perspective on failed Chinese wind power development

Grafström, J., Sandström, C. & Wieslander, A.

Publication year

2020

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

China is currently hailed as the world’s premier wind power producer. However, despite twice the installed wind power capacity compared to the United States in 2015, the Chinese installed capacity produces less power. Grid connectivity is remarkably low, Chinese firms have few international granted patents, and export is minimal even though production capacity far exceeds the domestic production needs. Using the tools of Austrian economics, failures in China’s wind power development from 1980-2016 is documented and analysed. From a theoretical standpoint, both a planning problem and an entrepreneurial problem is evident where governmental policies create misallocation of resources and a hampering of technological development.

Reports

Mycket mer för mindre – tillväxt och hållbarhet i Sverige

Publication year

2020

Published in

(Much) More for Less, För data, se denna bilaga.

Abstract

Sammanfattning:

Världens koldioxidutsläpp stiger fortfarande, vilket är ett enormt problem och arbete återstår. Men empiriska data från Sverige visar att det har gått att kombinera en växande ekonomi med krympande miljöpåverkan. Detta betyder att positiv förändring kan ske och möjligen kan överföras till andra länder.
Sedan år 1990 har Sveriges befolkning ökat med drygt 1,6 miljoner och ekonomin nästan fördubblats. Samtidigt har koldioxidutsläppen minskat med 27 procent mellan åren 1990 och 2018. BNP per koldioxidenhet gick under perioden ner med 60 procent.
Sedan 2008 (första året författarna har tillgängliga data ifrån) har de konsumtionsbaserade utsläppen från utlandet minskat.
Utsläppen från bilar har minskat, trots att antalet bilar ökade med 1,2 miljoner.
Av de 26 farliga utsläpp i luften som SCB har tillgänglig statistik över, har 24 minskat. I många fall är minskningen mer än 50 procent. Efter 1995 års förbud mot bly i bensin har dessa utsläpp minskat med 95 procent.
Utsläppen av svaveldioxid har gått ner med 80 procent sedan 1990, trots den ekonomiska tillväxt som ägt rum under perioden. Nedgången i användning av kol och eldningsolja tycks vara främsta orsak till denna minskning.
Det går att se kraftiga utsläppsminskningar av nickel, kadmium, krom, koppar, nickel och arsenik.
Antalet inrikesresor minskade marginellt jämfört med 1990-talets början, men utsläppen sjönk 13 procent. Utrikesresor har dock stigit.
Elanvändningen har gått upp med 2,8 procent sedan år 1990. Per capita och per BNP enhet har dock elanvändningen gått ner.
Sverige tar ut mindre vatten och använder mindre vatten per person sedan både 1970 och 1990.

För data, se denna bilaga.

Book

Moderna tider 4.0

Stockholm: Volante förlag

Publication year

2020

Published in

Abstract

Vi är många som närmar oss ett vägval: antingen kan vi börja på en yrkesväg som leder till guld och gröna skogar, eller fortsätta trampa en allt smalare och allt mer eftersatt stig. Den här boken vänder sig till dig som är nyfiken på vad det är som förändras i Sverige och världen idag, vad vi kan lära oss av historiska omställningar och vilka branscher som kan påverkas, blomstra – eller dö.

Oavsett om det är teknologisk utveckling eller oförutsedda globala händelser som orsakar branschförändringar är en sak klar: förändringarna sker snabbt. Många kommer inte hinna med tåget. Det här är guiden till framtidens yrken för dig som inte vill bli kvar på perrongen.

Automatiseringen och jobben då och nu

Publication year

2020

Published in

Ekonomisk Debatt

Abstract

Aldieri, L., Grafström, J., Sundström, K. & Vinci, C.P.

Wind Power and Job Creation

Publication year

2020

Published in

Sustainability

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a global overview of job effects per MW of wind power installations, which will enable improved decision-making and modeling of future wind-power projects. We found indications that job creation connected to wind-power installations is rather limited. In total, 17 peer-reviewed articles and 10 reports/non-peer-reviewed papers between 2001 and 2019 were assessed. Our three major policy conclusions are as follows: (a) job creation seems to be limited; (b) each new project should consider a unique assessment, since all projects have been undertaken within different institutional frameworks, labor markets, and during separate years, meaning that the technology is not comparable; and (c) the number of jobs depends on the labor intensity of the country.

Ratio Working Paper No. 320: Public policy failures related to China’s Wind Power Development

Publication year

2019

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

An anecdote about the failure of the Soviet economic system tells about a factory which were evaluated based on tons of nails produced – unsurprisingly the nails became heavy. China is currently hailed as the worlds primer wind power producer; however, a closer examination reveals a string of policy failure making the Chinese wind power development resemble the infamous Soviet nail example. From a technological transition perspective, policy failures in China’s wind power program from 1980-2016 is documented and analysed. Five overarching topics are analysed including: Conflicting policies, quality problems, underwhelming technological development, lacking technological standards and insufficient grid transmission system. One conclusion is that when the Chinese government set a command and control target of how much new installed capacity that was going to be constructed the state utilities delivered to target but with an abundance of power plants without grid connectivity, severe quality problems and low technological development.

Ratio Working Paper No. 317: China’s Wind Power Development – An Anatomy of Mishaps

Publication year

2019

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

China has in recent decades expanded its wind power generation capacity and become the world leader. Still, despite robust government support, wind power in China is obstructed by various barriers (e.g. quality deficiencies, inability to export, missing grid connections, and permit delays from central government for grid construction etc.). This paper synthesises the literature that has discovered weaknesses in the Chinese wind power development and suggests improvements. One energy policy relevant observation is that when the Chinese government sets command-and-control construction targets over new installed capacity, actors delivered to target – but with several power plants without grid connectivity and severe quality problems. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should improve their incentive structure and coordination of regulations.

Technological Change in Service of the Environment

Publication year

2019

Published in

IAEE Energy Forum

Abstract

The overall purpose of this paper is to briefly outlay and analyze the fundamentals of technological change in the renewable energy sector. Considering the threat of severe consequences of global warming, and policymakers’ desire to focus technological change in renewable energy as one of the solutions, the contribution of this paper lays in its attempt to promote understanding of the technological change process, i.e., the drivers behind it and the possible development patterns for different countries. Such knowledge should enable policy makers to make more efficient decisions.

Working Paper. No 310: Crowding out or Knowledge Spillovers: The Wind Power Industry´s Effect on Related Energy Machinery

Publication year

2018

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

There is a risk that if a government adopts a R&D spending policy directed towards wind power technology crowding out of other technologies might occur due to fiscal constraints and changes in relative prices. The purpose of this paper is to provide a backward-looking analysis of how the accumulation of wind energy patents and public R&D spending affected the domestic and neighboring country output of granted patents in the “related energy machinery field”. The econometric analysis, a Poisson fixed-effects estimator based on the Hausman, Hall and Griliches (1984) method, relies on a data set consisting of eight countries in Western Europe with the highest rates of patent production in the field of wind power between 1978 and 2008. The results show that an accumulation of a national wind power stock is a statistically significant negative determinant of a country’s related energy machinery patenting outcomes. However, no crowding out effects of public R&D spending were found.

Grafström, J., Hvalgren, N. & Korpi, M.

Ratio Working Paper No. 309: Förutsättningar för storskaligt infångande av koldioxid.

Publication year

2018

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Syftet med denna översiktsrapport är att ge en nulägesbild av möjligheterna till storskalig reducering av koldioxidutsläpp och atmosfäriska koldioxidkoncentrationer genom olika former av NET (Negative Emission Technologies). Enligt 2014 års basscenario från IPCC för maximalt 2°C uppvärming måste de globala koldioxidutsläppen börja minska kraftigt i närtid samt att olika former av NET tas i bruk senast under åren 2030–2045. NETs kritiska roll för måluppfyllnad kan ses i IPCCs scenariodatabas. Utav de 113 scenarier associerade med utfall under 2°C förutsätter 107 av dessa en framgångsrik implementering och storskaligt upptagande av koldioxid både ur själva atmosfären och direkt från olika typer av utsläppskällor. Vår övergripande slutsats är att utifrån nuläget på den tekniska utvecklingen kommer 2 graders målet svårligen uppnås. För att nå måluppfyllnad behövs en kontinuerlig minskning av absoluta utsläpp, att en marknad skapas för koldioxid och en betydligt snabbare utvecklingstakt vad gäller NET, exempelvis genom ökat statligt R&D.

Divergence of renewable energy invention efforts in Europe

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies

Publication year

2018

Published in

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) of invention efforts per capita in the renewable energy field across European Union (EU) countries. Divergence may imply a risk of a lower level of goal fulfilment regarding the share of renewable energy in the EU energy mix. This is due to free-rider issues and sub-optimal investment levels, in turn making it more expensive and cumbersome to expand renewable energy production. Convergence suggests a possible faster renewable energy goal achievement. The econometric analysis is based on patent application counts per capita for 13 EU Member States over the time period 1990–2012. The methods used draw on the economic convergence literature. First, we rely on a panel data set to test for conditional β-convergence. Moreover, a distributional dynamics approach is employed to test for σ- and γ-convergence, and analyse the intra-distributional dynamics. The results indicate conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention capabilities across the 13 countries, thus suggesting that some EU countries tend to free-ride on the development efforts of other Member States.
Related content: Working paper No. 295

International knowledge spillovers in the wind power industry: evidence from the European Union

Economics of Innovation and New Technology

Publication year

2018

Published in

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the presence of international knowledge spillovers in the wind power sector. Specifically, the paper investigates whether successful invention efforts in one country, measured by way of granted wind power patent counts, have had positive effects on the neighboring countries’ abilities to generate patents of the same category. Data on the number of patents granted at the European Patent Office during the period 1978–2008 are used for the eight national technological leaders in the western European wind power sector. The few comprehensive wind power studies that exist have only found limited evidence of international knowledge spillovers. However, in this paper, we find that international spillovers are statistically significant determinants of a country’s wind power patenting outcomes. Geographical distance is also taken into consideration, and the knowledge spillover effects are shown to become stronger with decreases in this distance. The results should have important policy implications, for example, for a national government when it comes to applying an investment strategy in wind power or, alternatively, free-riding on other countries’ invention efforts.

Working paper No. 301: Convergence of Incentive Capabilities within the European Union

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

The development of a single economic market and rapid technological advances in the European Union (EU) have resulted in its Member States undergoing major structural changes over the past few decades. The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether or not there is convergence in the inventive capabilities across the EU. This is done by econometrically investigating, by means of parametric and non-parametric techniques, the development of patents granted per capita in 13 Member States per capita during the period 1990–2011. The findings of several β-convergence and σ-convergence tests show convergence in inventive capabilities. Moreover, a similar result is obtained when analysing the distributional dynamics of the invention capabilities. The speed of convergence is however slow. This suggests that policy efforts implemented by the EU to reduce technological gaps among its Member States have been relatively insufficient, and may imply negative long-term consequences for EU cohesion.

Working paper No. 295: An Econometric Analysis of Divergence of Renewable Energy Invention Efforts in Europe

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to discuss populist actions that are expected follow technological change on the labor market.1 The causes and consequences of possible technological unemployment will be addressed and to what extent it could be expected that the rapid technological change leads to unemployment

Working Paper No. 294: Technological Change and Wage Polarization – The Illiberal Populist Response

Publication year

2017

Published in

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to discuss populist actions that are expected follow technological change on the labor market.1 The causes and consequences of possible technological unemployment will be addressed and to what extent it could be expected that the rapid technological change leads to unemployment (or that the labor market adapts in a similar way to previous technological changes as has been seen in history so far). A transforming labor market will constitute challenges for the future – possible wage polarization and heterogeneous distribution of unemployment in the labor force might create a demand for policy solutions that have an illiberal direction. In the paper it will be argued that the threat of populism will come from a disgruntled middle class rather than as commonly believed the poorer strata of the wage distribution.

Grafström, J, Söderholm, P, Gawel, E, Lehmann, P, Strunz, S

Working Paper No. 292: Knowledge Accumulation from Public Renewable Energy R&D in the European Union: Converging or Diverging Trends?

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Bottom-up processes of policy convergence are increasingly discussed as a substitute for the absence of supranational energy policy coordination and harmonization in the EU. The overall objective of this paper is to analyse the development of government support to renewable energy R&D across EU countries over time: does the empirical evidence suggest bottom-up convergence? In order to answer this question, we first construct country-specific R&D-based knowledge stocks, and then investigate whether the developments of these stocks tend to converge or diverge across EU countries. A data set covering 12 EU Member States over the time period 1990-2012 is employed to test for the presence of conditional β-convergence using a bias-corrected dynamic panel data estimator. The empirical results are overall robust and suggest divergence in terms of public R&D-based knowledge build-up in renewable energy technology. This finding is consistent with free-riding behavior on the part of some Member States, and the presence of industrial policy motives in other States in combination with agglomeration effects in the renewable energy sector. Energy import dependence and electricity regulation are found to influence the growth of the R&D-based knowledge stock, and the deregulation of the EU electricity markets has tended to contribute to a lower speed of divergence.

Reports

Styrkor och svagheter inom den svenska miljötekniksektorn

Publication year

2015

Published in

Abstract

Den svenska miljöenergisektorn har under 2000-talet varit snabbväxande men är ändå en relativt liten bransch i det svenska näringslivet. Företagen har ofta varit små och inte utvecklats till medelstora företag. Enligt siffror från Vinnova, hade Sverige bara ett stort och tolv medelstora gröna energiföretag år 2011. Det finns ett antal styrkor och svagheter i den svenska miljöenergisektorn som denna rapport har identifierat. Dessa presenteras kort i punktform nedan och mer utförligt senare i rapporten.

Hur en industri kan växa upp och utvecklas kring en ny teknologi är en komplex fråga. Tidigare studier visar att industriutveckling och teknikspridning är beroende av hela innovationssystemet, inte bara av t.ex. forskningsfinansiering eller ett enskilt företags utvecklingsinsatser. Sverige har en bra grund för en växande miljöenergibransch men mycket återstår att göra.

Rapportens syfte är att besvara frågan om varför det finns så få medelstora (51-249 medarbetare) miljöföretag i Sverige. Rapporten syftar också till att identifiera styrkor och svagheter i den svenska miljöenergisektorn. Den svensk miljötekniksektor analyseras med utgångspunkt i de tre teknikutvecklingsstadierna uppfinning, innovation och spridning.

Related publications

Grafström, J., Poelzer, G., & Pettersson, J.

Barriers to circularity in the metals industry: an analytical framework of feedback and lock-in effects

Publication year

2025

Published in

Mineral Economics.

Abstract

Working Paper No. 385 The workload paradox: Will AIreduce academic labor?

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2025

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Working Paper No. 379: Europe’s Future Industrial Landscape: A Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index

Publication year

2024

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Abstract

Economic freedom and environmental performance

Graftström, J.

Publication year

2024

Published in

Handbook of Research on Economic Freedom. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.

Abstract

Diverging or converging technology capabilities in the European Union?

Grafström, J., & Alm, C.

Publication year

2024

Published in

The Journal of Technology Transfer

Abstract

Ratio Working Paper No. 373: Who Wants to Work from Home? A Demographic Study of Attitudes Towards Remote Work

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

Grafström, J. & Roth, D. (2024). Shifts in Doctoral Education: Analyzing the Rising Popularity of Job Market Papers in Swedish Economics Doctoral Dissertations. Ratio Working Paper No. 375.

Ratio Working Paper No. 375: Shifts in Doctoral Education: Analyzing the Rising Popularity of Job Market Papers in Swedish Economics Doctoral Dissertations

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

Working Paper No. 369: Spark of Transformation: The Impact of Electricity Prices on Europe’s Industrial Landscape– Introducing the Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index (GILAI)

Publication year

2023

Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series

Abstract

Grafström, J., Söderholm, P., Gawel, E., Lehmann, P., & Strunz, S.

Government support to renewable energy R&D: drivers and strategic interactions among EU Member States

Publication year

2023

Published in

Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 32(1), 1-24.

Abstract

The article can be accessed here.

Grafström, J., & Poudineh, R.

No evidence of counteracting policy effects on European solar power invention and diffusion

Publication year

2023

Published in

Energy Policy, 172, 113319.

Abstract

Less from More: China Built Wind Power, but Gained Little Electricity

Publication year

2022

Published in

Questioning the Entrepreneurial State, 219.

Abstract

The book can be downloaded here.

Grafström, J., M. Arfwedson, S. & Svensson, S.

Fjärvärmemonopolen stoppar en cirkulär ekonomi

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ekonomisk debatt, 2022(5).

Abstract

Grafström, J., M. Arfwedson, S. & Svensson, S. (2022). Fjärvärmemonopolen stoppar en cirkulär ekonomi. Ekonomisk debatt, 2022(5).

Allstrin, S., Grafström, J., Stern, C. & Weidenstedt, L.

Working Paper No. 357: Managing Work from Anywhere: Six Points to Consider for HR Professionals

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper.

Abstract

Long, V., & Grafström, J.

What prevents machine learning from transforming industries?

Publication year

2021

Published in

Technological Change and Industrial Transformation.

Abstract

Long, V., & Grafström, J. (2021). What prevents machine learning from transforming industries?. In Technological Change and Industrial Transformation (pp. 125-140). Routledge.