The Brexit Trade Disruption Revisited

Abstract

political implications. One of the most profound economic impacts would be on trade—the EU is the UK’s most important trade partner, with approximately half of UK total trade. A Brexit would imply looser economic integration between the UK and EU. In addition to the trade barriers that would arise from leaving the single market, there would also be negative trade policy effects. Previous analyses of the cost of a Brexit to the UK economy in terms of trade have probably underestimated the impact because they overlook the trade-enhancing role of migration. A Brexit would be likely to limit migration, which, in turn, would aggravate the exit’s trade-disruptive effect.

Hatzigeorgiou, A., & Lodefalk, M. (2016). The Brexit Trade Disruption Revisited. The Estey Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, 17(1), 41-58.

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Publication year

2026

Published in

Kiel Policy Brief, 2026.

Abstract

Occupations that are highly cognitive, non-physical, and low in social interaction — typically higher-skill white-collar roles such as data analysts, software developers, and translators — turn out to be highly AI-exposed

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Engberg, E., Görg, H., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Längkvist, M., & .. (2026). Who is afraid of AI? Who should be?. Kiel Policy Brief, 2026.

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Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

We show that the age composition of employment within Swedish employers shifts after the arrival of generative AI, with no corresponding reduction in aggregate labour demand. Using 4.6 million job advertisements from Sweden’s largest recruitment platform, we find that the broad decline in postings since 2022 aligns with monetary tightening rather than AI, exploiting Sweden’s seven-month gap between the Riksbank’s first rate hike and the launch of ChatGPT as a timing test. We then use full-population employer–employee register data and an employer-level difference-in-differences design to estimate how AI exposure affects employment composition across six age groups. An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent. The widening age gradient suggests that generative AI reshapes hiring composition rather than aggregate demand, with the adjustment burden falling disproportionately on entry-level workers.

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Publication year

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Published in

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014-2022 and universal register data for Sweden. We construct a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.

The Brexit Trade Disruption Revisited

Abstract

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