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Magnus Lodefalk

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magnus.lodefalk@oru.se
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Magnus Lodefalk is an Associate Professor of Economics at Örebro University, Sweden, and is affiliated with the Ratio research institute and the Global Labor Organization. He is the initiator and co-leader of the AI-Econ Lab at Örebro University and co-leads the Swedish research cluster “AI, Structural Change, and the Future of Work” (AISCAF), funded by WASP-HS. He also co-leads the research group EFGI at Örebro University and coordinates the university’s economics seminar and brown bag series.

His research focuses on the drivers and barriers of firm growth and how these factors affect employment, wages, and economic development. The work is motivated by the profound welfare implications of understanding what fosters or hinders growth—a perspective inspired by economist Robert Lucas Jr.

He studies the economic impact of technology, such as artificial intelligence, as well as public policy, foreign trade, migrant labor, and the servicification of firms. His research often applies econometric methods to analyze large-scale, de-identified longitudinal and linked employer–employee datasets.

Related publications

    Working paper

    Working Paper No. 380. Artificial Intelligence, hiring and employment: Job postings evidence from Sweden.

    Engberg, E., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Sabolová, R., Schroeder, S.
    Download

    Publication year

    2024

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper Series.

    Abstract

    This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014-2022 and universal register data for Sweden. We construct a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.

    Article (with peer review)

    Stayin’ alive: Export credit guarantees and export survival

    Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., & Yu, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2025

    Published in

    Applied Economics Letters

    Abstract

    We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms’ export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms’ export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.

    Article (with peer review)

    Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany

    Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.
    Download

    Publication year

    2025

    Published in

    Research Policy

    Abstract

    As a first step, the study documents novel evidence on changes in tasks and skills within occupations in Germany over the past two decades. It further identifies a distinct relationship between ex ante occupational work content and ex post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation through robots. Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements than workers in occupations primarily exposed to robots, suggesting that AI and robots substitute for different types of tasks and skills. The study also shows that changes in the task and skill content of occupations are related to their initial exposure to these technologies. Finally, using individual labour market biographies, the analysis investigates the relationship between AI exposure and wages. By examining the dynamic effects of AI exposure over time, the study finds positive associations with wages, with nuanced differences across occupational groups, thereby providing further insight into the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

    Article (with peer review)

    Artificial Intelligence and Worker Stress Evidence from Germany

    Koch, M., & Lodefalk, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2025

    Published in

    Digital Society, 4(1), 5

    Abstract

    We use individual survey data providing detailed information on stress, technology adoption, and work, worker, and employer characteristics, in combination with recent measures of AI and robot exposure, to investigate how new technologies affect worker stress. We find a persistent negative relationship, suggesting that AI and robots could reduce the stress level of workers in Germany. We furthermore provide evidence on potential mechanisms to explain our findings. Overall, the paper contributes to the economic literature by providing suggestive evidence of modern technologies changing the way we perform our work in a way that reduces stress and work pressure.

    Article (with peer review)

    Artificial intelligence, hiring and employment: job postings evidence from Sweden

    Engberg, E., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Sabolová, R., Schroeder, S., & Tang, A

    Publication year

    2025

    Published in

     Applied Economics Letters

    Abstract

    This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014 to 2022 and full-population administrative data for Sweden. We exploit a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.

    Article (with peer review)

    Immigrant employment and the contract enforcement costs of offshoring

    Hatzigeorgiou, A., Karpaty, P., Kneller, R., & Lodefalk, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2024

    Published in

    Review of World Economics, 1-29.

    Abstract

    Offshoring continues to be an important dimension of firms’ internationalization choices. However, offshoring also increases contract enforcement costs by inhibiting the coordination and monitoring of performance. Immigrant employees may reduce such costs through their specific knowledge of the employer, their country of birth and access to foreign networks. In this paper, we investigate the role of immigrant employees within firms on firm offshoring, employing rich administrative Swedish microlevel data that include specific information about the characteristics of employees, manufacturing firms and their bilateral offshoring. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrant employees increase offshoring by lowering contract enforcement costs. Hiring one additional immigrant employee is linked to a relatively larger increase in offshoring at the intensive than the extensive margin, on average. The association to offshoring is considerably stronger for skilled immigrant employees and for contract and R&D intensive offshoring. Instrumental variable estimations demonstrate qualitatively similar results, while a placebo test with randomized immigrant employment does not generate any link between immigrants and offshoring.

    Working paper

    Ratio Working Paper No. 377: Artificial Intelligence and Worker Stress: Evidence from Germany

    Koch, M., & Lodefalk, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2024

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper Series.

    Abstract

    We use individual survey data providing detailed information on stress, technology adoption, and work, worker, and employer characteristics, in combination with recent measures of AI and robot exposure, to investigate how new technologies affect worker stress. We find a persistent negative relationship, suggesting that AI and robots could reduce the stress level of workers. We furthermore provide evidence on potential mechanisms to explain our findings. Overall, the results provide suggestive evidence of modern technologies changing the way we perform our work in a way that reduces stress and work pressure.

    Article (with peer review)

    Economic Determinants of Attitudes Toward Migration: Firm-level Evidence from Europe

    Baccini, L., Lodefalk, M., & Sabolová, R.
    Download

    Publication year

    2024

    Published in

    International Organization, 1-36.

    Abstract

    What are the distributional consequences of migration, and how do they affect attitudes toward migration? In this paper we leverage a natural experiment generated by the ousting of former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, which created an unprecedented influx of economic migrants from African countries to Europe. This surge of low-skilled labor benefited low-productivity firms by lowering their production costs and expanding their labor supply. Employing a triple difference-in-differences design, we document that attitudes toward migration became more positive in Western European regions with large shares of migrants and low-productivity firms. Evidence from Sweden, which provides finely grained geographical data, confirms these findings. We then test the economic microfoundations of this attitudinal shift. We show that the surge in the supply of low-skilled labor increased the profitability of low-productivity firms more in areas that experienced larger migration flows. We find no evidence that migration worsened natives’ labor market conditions.

    Working paper

    Working Paper No. 371: Artificial Intelligence Tasks Skills and Wages: Worker-Level Evidence from Germany

    Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.

    Publication year

    2023

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper Series.

    Abstract

    This paper documents novel facts on within-occupation task and skill changes over the past two decades in Germany. In a second step, it reveals a distinct relationship between occupational work content and exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation (robots). Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements compared to workers in occupations exposed to robots. In a third step, the study uses individual labour market biographies to investigate the impact on wages between 2010 and 2017. Results indicate a wage growth premium in occupations more exposed to AI, contrasting with a wage growth discount in occupations exposed to robots. Finally, the study further explores the dynamic influence of AI exposure on individual wages over time, uncovering positive associations with wages, with nuanced variations across occupational groups.

    Working paper

    Working Paper No. 370: AI Unboxed and Jobs: A Novel Measure and Firm-Level Evidence from Three Countries

    Engberg, E., Görg, H., Lodefalk, M., Javed, F., Längkvist, M., Monteiro, N., Kyvik Nordås, H., Pulito, G., Schroeder, S., & Tang, A.
    Download

    Publication year

    2023

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper Series.

    Abstract

    We unbox developments in artificial intelligence (AI) to estimate how exposure to these developments affect firm-level labour demand, using detailed register data from Denmark, Portugal, and Sweden over two decades. Based on data on AI capabilities and occupational work content, we develop and validate a time-variant measure for occupational exposure to AI across subdomains of AI, including language modelling. According to our model, white collar occupations are most exposed to AI, and especially white collar work that entails relatively little social interaction. We illustrate its usefulness by applying it to near-universal data on firms and individuals from Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal, and estimating firm labour demand regressions. We find a positive (negative) association between AI exposure and labour demand for high-skilled white (blue) collar work. Overall, there is an up-skilling effect, with the share of white-collar to blue collar workers increasing with AI exposure. Exposure to AI within the subdomains of image and language are positively (negatively) linked to demand for high-skilled white collar (blue collar) work, whereas other AI-areas are heterogeneously linked to groups of workers.

    Article (with peer review)

    Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees

    Agarwal, N., Chan, J. M., Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., Tano, S., & Wang, Z.

    Publication year

    2023

    Published in

    Journal of International Economics, 103831.

    Abstract

    Information frictions make foreign trade risky. In particular, the risk of buyer default deters firms from selling abroad. To address this issue, many countries offer export credit guarantees to provide insurance to exporters. In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of guarantees by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in Sweden and rich register data on guarantees, firms and trade. Estimates from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design show large positive effects on the probability of exporting and the value of exports to the destination for which the guarantees are issued. These results are robust to an alternative approach using a difference-in-differences matching estimator. Further findings suggest that guarantees impact firms heterogeneously and play an important role in resolving buyer default risk and easing liquidity constraints. Larger impacts are observed in non-OECD countries, on smaller, liquidity constrained exporters and for firms selling products that face a relatively high cost of buyer default.

    Working paper

    Ratio Working Paper No. 359: Stayin’ Alive: Export Credit Guarantees and Export Survival

    Lodefalk, M., Tang, A. & Yu, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2022

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper.

    Abstract

    We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms’ export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms’ export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.

    Article (with peer review)

    International trade and labour market integration of immigrants

    Lodefalk, M., Sjöholm, F., & Tang, A.

    Publication year

    2022

    Published in

    The World Economy, 45, 1650– 1689.

    Abstract

    Abstract

    We examine whether international trade improves labour market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labour market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.

    Read all of the article here.

    Article (with peer review)

    A Literature Review of the Nexus between Migration and Internationalization

    Hatzigeorgiou, A. & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2021

    Published in

    Journal of International Trade & Economic Development

    Abstract

    Protectionism and anti-globalization tides have been rising already before the COVID-19 pandemic, with Brexit and the China-U.S. trade war, as two examples. A continued disruption to global trade, investment and value chains could worsen global development. Economic recovery will require restoring firms’ ability to trade, offshore and invest globally. To achieve this, it will be useful to understand the role of migration for foreign trade, investment and other aspects of internationalization. In this paper we review and discuss over 100 papers published about migrants’ roles on international trade, foreign direct investment and offshoring. Although the evidence suggests that migration facilitates trade and internationalization, we also note substantial gaps and inconsistencies in the existing literature. The aim of this paper is to encourage further research and assist policymakers in their efforts to promote economic recovery including internationalization.

    Working paper

    Ratio Working Paper No. 342: Business Angels and Firm Performance: First Evidence from Population Data

    Andersson, F. & Lodefalk, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2020

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    Business angels dominate early stage investment in firms but research on the effects of their investment is scarce and limited by sample selection. We therefore propose an algorithm for identifying business angel investment in total population data. We apply the algorithm to study the effects of business angels on firm performance, using detailed and longitudinal total population data for individuals and firms in Sweden. Employing these data and a quasi-experimental estimator, we find that business angels engage in firms that already perform above par but that there also is a positive effect on subsequent growth, comparing with control firms. Firms with business angel investment perform better in terms of sales and employment growth and likelihood of becoming a high-growth firm. Contrary to previous research, we cannot find any impact on firm survival, however. Overall, our results underline the need to address sample selection issues both in identifying business angels and in evaluating their effects on firm performance.

    Article (without peer review)

    Stå på giganters axlar

    Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2020

    Published in

    Ekonomisk

    Abstract

    Working paper

    Ratio Working Paper No. 335 International Trade and Labor Market Integration of Immigrants

    Lodefalk, M., Sjöholm, F. & Tang, A.
    Download

    Publication year

    2020

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.

    Article (without peer review)

    Statliga garantier i utrikeshandeln – mönster, effekter och reflektioner

    Lodefalk, M., Tang, A. & Tano, S.

    Publication year

    2019

    Published in

    Ekonomisk debatt

    Abstract

    Många länder erbjuder exportkreditgarantier där staten mot en premie utfäster sig att betala exportören om den utländska kunden inte gör det. Vi beskriver det svenska systemet under Exportkreditnämnden, med fokus på små- och medelstora företag, och undersöker effekterna av sådana garantier på företags export, sysselsättning och förädlingsvärde. Vi finner att garantierna påverkar såväl inträde i export som värdet på exporten positivt. Vi noterar att effekterna är mycket heterogena över olika typer av företag och utfallsvariabler, där de mindre företagens export underlättas avsevärt mer än de stora företagens. För vissa företag och transaktioner ser vi även effekter på jobb och förädlingsvärde. Vi avslutar med att diskutera policyimplikationer.

    Article (with peer review)

    Migration and Servicification: Do Immigrant Employees Spur Firm Exports of Services?

    Lodefalk, M. & Hatzigeorgiou, A.

    Publication year

    2019

    Published in

    The World Economy

    Abstract

    Services play an increasingly important role in production, employment and international trade but are subject to substantially higher trade costs relative to manufactured goods. Knowledge of how these trade costs can be mitigated is important for facilitating trade of services. In this paper, we analyze the role of immigrant employees as facilitators of firm exports of services, a role that remains largely unexamined. We bridge the gap in existing research by drawing on new data for nearly 30,000 Swedish firms during the period 1998‐2007 within a heterogeneous firm framework. The results have important policy implications. As the multilateral approach to facilitating trade is challenged and more countries are imposing measures to restrict the cross‐country mobility of people, policymakers may need to find new ways to promote exports of services. Our results indicate that immigrant employees spur firms’ export of services activities: hiring one additional foreign‐born worker can increase services exports by approximately 2.5 percent, on average, with a stronger effect found for skilled and newly arrived immigrants. Therefore, policymakers could leverage the findings of this study to implement initiatives that utilize high‐skilled immigrants to promote services exports.

    Working paper

    Ratio Working Paper No. 316: Mitigating Information Frictions in Trade: Evidence from Export Credit Guarantees

    Lodefalk, M., Tang, A. & Wang, Z.
    Download

    Publication year

    2018

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    Information frictions make non-simultaneous exchange risky, particularly across borders. Therefore, many countries insure cross-border exchange. We investigate the effects on firm trade, jobs, value added and productivity, using uniquely detailed, comprehensive and longitudinal transaction-level Swedish data on insurance and granular data on exporters and foreign buyers. For identification, we employ matching and differencein- difference and fuzzy regression discontinuity estimators and exploit a quasi-natural experiment. We find strikingly heterogeneous effects across firm size and response variables. The strongest positive effects are for small traders and new users. Overall, the evidence suggests a causal link from export insurance to firm performance.

    Article (with peer review)

    The impact of hiring top workers on productivity: what is the role of absorptive capacity?

    Lodefalk, M., & Tang, A.

    Publication year

    2018

    Published in

    Applied Economics Letters

    Abstract

    We examine the heterogeneous productivity impacts of hiring top workers on small and medium-sized enterprises, exploiting matched employer–employee panel data and employing within-firm as well as matching and difference-in-difference estimators. The results provide robust evidence that the productivity impact is stronger for firms with higher absorptive capacity. Technological laggards within an industry benefit more strongly from hiring top workers if their workforce is more well-educated.

    Article (without peer review)

    Svenska affärsänglar – hur lyckas de med sina investeringar?

    Andersson, F. W., & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2018

    Published in

    Ekonomisk debatt 46

    Abstract

    Utdrag: Aktiebolag som affärsänglar investerar i blir med högre sannolikhet snabbväxande företag, s k gasellföretag, jämfört med ett slumpmässigt valt aktiebolag. Resultatet håller även efter att affärsänglarnas företag jämförts med liknande ”tvillingföretags” tillväxt. Detta kan indikera att det är affärsänglarna som bidrar och hjälper till att utveckla företag i stället för att de enbart väljer ut ”vinnarföretag” att investera i, s k picking cherries-beteende.

    Working paper

    Working paper No. 302: Do Migrants Facilitate Internationalization? A Review of the Literature

    Hatzigeorgiou, A. & Lodefalk, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2017

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    How migration relates to internationalization has been a prominent question in international economics for a long time and its relevance for policy has increased with the amplified political focus on migration. But the role of migration for internationalization is not as obvious as the standard theory suggests, and tightening migration could have unexpected consequences for both developing and developed countries. In this paper we review and discuss over 100 papers published about migrants’ role in international trade and foreign direct investment, from pioneering country-level studies to nascent firm-level studies that utilize employer-employee data. To our knowledge, this is the first paper offering a wide-ranging review of the different strands of theory on the relationship between migration and internationalization, as well as new empirical findings. Although the evidence suggests that migration can facilitate internationalization, we also note substantial gaps and inconsistencies in the extant literature. The aim of this paper is to encourage future research and assist policymakers in their efforts to promote internationalization, and better understand the economic effects of changes in migration policy.

    Working paper

    Working paper No. 298: Migration and Servicification: Do Immigrant Employees Spur Firm Exports of Services?

    Hatzigeorgiou, A, Lodefalk, M
    Download

    Publication year

    2017

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    Many countries display remarkably high dependence on services for production and employment that is incommensurate with their level of services exports. One explanation is that trade in services is more sensitive to informal and behind-the-border trade barriers such as information friction and inadequate access to foreign networks. Immigrant employees may provide access to and appeal in foreign markets through their knowledge of—and contacts in—their former home countries. We develop a heterogeneous firm framework to guide our empirical analysis and draw on new employer-employee data for nearly 30,000 Swedish firms during the period 1998-2007. The results suggest that immigrant employees facilitate services exports. Hiring one additional foreign-born worker can increase services exports by approximately 2.5 percent, on average, with a stronger effect found for skilled and newly arrived immigrants.

    Article (with peer review)

    The characteristics of family firms

    Andersson, F. W., Johansson, D., Karlsson, J., Lodefalk, M., & Poldahl, A.

    Publication year

    2018

    Published in

    Small Business Economics

    Abstract

    Family firms are often considered characteristically different from non-family firms. However, our understanding of family firms suffers from an inability to identify them in total population data; information is rarely available regarding owners, their kinship, and their involvement in firm governance. We present a method for identifying domiciled family firms using register data; this method offers greater accuracy than previous methods. We apply this method to Swedish data concerning firm ownership, governance, and kinship from 2004 to 2010. We find that the family firm is a significant organizational form, contributing over one third of all employment and gross domestic product (GDP). Family firms are common in most industries and range in size. Furthermore, we find that, compared to private non-family firms, family firms have fewer total assets, employment, and sales and carry higher solidity, although family firms are more profitable. These differences diminish with firm size. We conclude that the term “family firm” includes a large variety of firms, and we call for increased attention to their heterogeneity.

    Article (with peer review)

    Recruiting for Small Business Growth: Micro Level Evidence

    Gidehag, A., & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2017

    Published in

    International Review of Entrepreneurship

    Abstract

    We examine the link between new employees in leading positions and subsequent productivity in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Managers and professionals are likely to possess important tacit knowledge. They are also in a position to influence the employing firm. Exploiting rich and comprehensive panel data for Sweden in the 2001-2010 period and employing semi-parametric and quasi-experimental estimation techniques, we find that newly recruited professionals have a positive and statistically significant impact on the productivity of the hiring SME. For newly recruited managers there is no general link to the productivity of the hiring SME. We also find that professionals with experience from international firms and enterprise groups contribute the most to total factor productivity. Overall, the findings suggest the importance of mobility of key personnel for productivity-enhancing knowledge spillovers to SMEs.
    Related content: Working Paper No. 280

    Article (with peer review)

    Female Top Management in Family Firms and Non-Family Firms: Evidence from Total Population Data

    Karlsson, J., Andersson, F., Johansson, D., Lodefalk, M., & Poldahl, A.

    Publication year

    2018

    Published in

    International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business

    Abstract

    We exploit information on ownership, management and kinship to study the representation of women in top management teams in Swedish family and non-family firms among domiciled limited liability firms over the years 2004 to 2010. The share of female top managers is analysed across listed and non-listed firms as well as across industries. We then estimate the likelihood that a woman is elected into the top management team in family and non-family firms using a probit regression model where we control for firm- and individual-level characteristics, including the gender distribution of the firm and kinship relations to existing board members and firm owners. We find that non-listed family firms are more likely to appoint female top managers, whereas we find no differences among listed firms. Moreover, we find that the gender composition and kinship structures of firms influence the appointment of female top managers.

    Article (with peer review)

    Servicification of Firms and Trade Policy Implications

    Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2017

    Published in

    World Trade Review

    Abstract

    In the OECD countries, the decline of manufacturing and the employment implications have long been matters of concern. Recently, policymakers in several countries have set out to try and achieve reindustrialization. The servicification of firms is related to these concerns and aspirations. However, servicification, and particularly its role in trade policy, has received limited attention. I review micro-level evidence and discuss its implications. I find that imported, domestic and exported services are all important to contemporary firm competitiveness and participation in international value chains. Therefore, historic policymaking divisions between trade in manufactures and trade in services services, between export and import interests, and among modes of supply are becoming less relevant. I conclude by suggesting potential steps forward.

    Working paper

    Working paper No. 282: Immigrant employment and the Contract Enforcement Costs of Offshoring

    Hatzigeorgiou, A., Karpaty, P., Kneller, R., & Lodefalk, M
    Download

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    Offshoring continues to be an important dimension of firms’ internationalization choices. However, offshoring also increases
    contract enforcement costs by inhibiting the coordination and monitoring of performance. Immigrant employees may reduce
    such costs through their specific knowledge of the employer, their country of birth and access to foreign networks. We develop
    a heterogeneous firm framework with immigrants and offshoring costs, including technology leakage. In the model, immigrant
    employees augment the supervisory services of headquarters and limit technology leakage, thereby reducing contract
    enforcement costs. Then, we bring our conjectures to rich administrative Swedish microlevel data that include specific
    information about the characteristics of employees, manufacturing firms and their bilateral offshoring. Our results support the
    hypothesis that immigrant employees increase offshoring intensity by lowering contract enforcement costs. Hiring one
    additional immigrant employee can increase offshoring by up to three percent on average, with the strongest effects found for
    skilled immigrant employees.

    Article (with peer review)

    Migrants’ Influence on Firm-level Exports

    Hatzigeorgiou, A., & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    Journal of Industry Competition and Trade

    Abstract

    We examine the role of migrants in trade using a firm-level approach. We exploit a new employer–employee panel for Sweden, which encompasses close to 600,000 full-time employees, approximately 12,000 firms and data for 176 countries for the period 1998–2007. The resulting analysis provides novel firm-level evidence on the trade-migration relationship. Foreign-born workers have a positive association with firm exports. However, immigrants do not have an unconditional positive impact on firm trade. Mainly small firms gain from hiring foreign-born workers, and migrants need to be skilled and recently arrived to have a clear positive impact on firm export performance.

    Working paper

    Working paper No. 280: Recruiting for Small Business Growth: Micro-level Evidence

    Gidehag, A. & Lodefalk, M.
    Download

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    Ratio Working Paper

    Abstract

    We examine the link between new employees in leading positions and subsequent productivity in small- and medium-sized (SME) enterprises. Managers and professionals are likely to possess important tacit knowledge. They are also in a position to influence the employing firm. Exploiting rich and comprehensive panel data for Sweden in the 2001-2010 period and employing semi-parametric and quasi-experimental estimation techniques, we find that newly recruited leading personnel have a positive and statistically significant impact on the productivity of the hiring SME. Interestingly, our results suggest that professionals with experience from international firms and enterprise groups contribute the most to total factor productivity. Overall, the findings suggest the importance of mobility of leading personnel for productivity-enhancing knowledge spillovers to SMEs.
    Related content: Recruiting for Small Business Growth: Micro Level Evidence

    Article (with peer review)

    Temporary expats for exports: micro-level evidence

    Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    Review of World Economics

    Abstract

    We analyze the relation between temporary expats in firms and exports, exploiting micro-level panel data on migration and trade. Temporary expats are positively associated with exports. Their link with export intensity is larger for services than for merchandise and for exports of differentiated services and merchandise than for exports of homogeneous products. Our evidence also suggests that temporary expats are positively related to exports by assisting firms in overcoming informal destination-specific barriers. Overall, our findings suggest the importance of the temporary movement of persons for providing firms with up-to-date links to export markets.

    Reports

    Kunskapsöverföring för tillväxt

    Lodefalk, M. & Gidehag, A.

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    Tillväxtanalys

    Abstract

    I en rapport författad åt Tillväxtanalys analyserar Magnus Lodefalk, forskare vid Örebro universitet och Ratio och Anton Gidehag, doktorand vid Örebro universitet sambandet mellan nyanställda nyckelpersoner och företagens efterföljande produktivitetsutveckling och hur sambandet varierar med både yrkesroll och tidigare erfarenheter.

    Studien täcker små och medelstora företag i Sverige under tidsperioden 2001-2010 och resultaten tyder på att rekrytering av nyckelkompetens är viktigt för produktiviteten hos dessa företag. De små och medelstora företagen som lyckas rekrytera specialister från väletablerade företag förefaller ha en särskilt gynnsam produktivitetsutveckling. Detta innefattar bland annat rekrytering av personal från multinationella företag och företag som deltar i utrikeshandeln.

    Article (without peer review)

    Brexflektioner – vilka blir de ekonomiska konsekvenserna av att Storbritannien lämnar EU?

    Hatzigeorgiou, A, & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    Ekonomisk debatt

    Abstract

    En kommande brexit kommer att få politiska och ekonomiska konsekvenser, inte minst genom minskad utrikeshandel och försämrat ekonomiskt samarbete i Europa. Vi diskuterar de ekonomiska konsekvenserna av en brexit, med fokus på handel och handelspolitik. Förmodligen har de negativa ekonomiska konsekvenserna underskattats eftersom den handelshämmande effekten av minskad migration inte beaktats. Vår slutsats är att brexit kommer att försämra den ekonomiska integrationen mellan EU och Storbritannien samt leda till en försvagad brittisk handelspolitik, vilket särskilt kan drabba Sverige. För att minimera kostnaderna av brexit bör Sverige eftersträva ett så ambitiöst och heltäckande ekonomiskt partnerskapsavtal mellan EU och Storbritannien som möjligt.

    Article (with peer review)

    The Brexit Trade Disruption Revisited

    Hatzigeorgiou, A., & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2016

    Published in

    The Estey Journal of International Law and Trade Policy

    Abstract

    political implications. One of the most profound economic impacts would be on trade—the EU is the UK’s most important trade partner, with approximately half of UK total trade. A Brexit would imply looser economic integration between the UK and EU. In addition to the trade barriers that would arise from leaving the single market, there would also be negative trade policy effects. Previous analyses of the cost of a Brexit to the UK economy in terms of trade have probably underestimated the impact because they overlook the trade-enhancing role of migration. A Brexit would be likely to limit migration, which, in turn, would aggravate the exit’s trade-disruptive effect.

    Article (with peer review)

    Trade, Migration and Integration – Evidence and Policy Implications

    Hatzigeorgiou, A. & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2015

    Published in

    The World Economy

    Abstract

    This paper takes as its point of departure the unique position recently adopted by Swedish policymakers emphasising migration as a tool to increase trade. We attempt to empirically scrutinise this position. Our results demonstrate that migrants stimulate exports, especially along the extensive product margin of trade and for differentiated products, but have no significant impact on imports. This finding suggests that for small open economies where numerous immigrants are refugees, the strategy of using migration to facilitate trade may only be effective with respect to exports. This paper also contributes to the literature on trade and migration by exploiting data on gender and age, which allow us to draw inferences on the underlying impact channels. We adopt an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity issue due to potential reverse causality. The pattern of results is consistent with the hypothesis that migration primarily reduces fixed trade costs resulting from information and trust friction across migrant host and source countries. Importantly, the results imply that policymakers may be able to promote trade by improving immigrants’ labour market integration instead of simply being restricted to promoting more liberal immigration policies, which is generally more controversial.

    Article (without peer review)

    Migration kan främja internationalisering

    Hatzigeorgiou, A. & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2015

    Published in

    Ekonomiska Samfundets Tidskrift 2015, Migration och företagens internationalisering – en kunskapsöversikt

    Abstract

    Article (without peer review)

    Utlandsfödda kan främja företagens export av tjänster

    Hatzigeorgiou, A. & Lodefalk, M.

    Publication year

    2015

    Published in

    Ekonomisk Debatt

    Abstract

    Ekonomin blir alltmer tjänsteorienterad. Sveriges BNP utgörs nu till ca 70 procent av tjänster. Den andel av arbetskraften som sysselsätts inom tjänstesektorn ökar, samtidigt som industrin blir mer tjänsteintensiv. Men trots att karaktären på svensk utrikeshandel följer en liknande trend brister förståelsen av vad som driver och hämmar tjänsteutrikeshandeln. Denna kunskapslucka har fått oönskade konsekvenser och kan förklara varför insatser för att underlätta internationalisering avseende tjänster har fått en undanskymd roll i handelspolitiken. Denna artikel analyserar hur utlandsfödda inverkar på företagens utrikeshandel med tjänster. Vi finner stöd för att svenska företag kan öka sin tjänsteutrikeshandel genom att anställa utlandsfödda med högskoleutbildning.