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Sverige och EU: Handel och tillväxt

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Abstract

EU är idag världens största marknadsplats. Forskningsinstitutet Ratio har i studien “Sverige och EU: Handel och tillväxt” funnit att Sveriges varuhandel med EU idag är nästan dubbelt så stor som den skulle ha varit utan medlemskap och handelsavtal. Den svenska varuhandeln har ökat med 85-95 %, som en direkt följd av EU och ökad öppenhet. Effekterna på tjänstehandeln är cirka hälften så stor som varuhandeln. EU har även bidragit till ekonomisk tillväxt bland medlemsländerna. Studien visar att Sveriges BNP ökat med 3-20 %, tack vare vår öppna ekonomi, långtgående frihandelsavtal och EU-inträdet.
Lågt hållna beräkningar pekar på att ca 3 procent av dagens BNP kan tillskrivas EU och ökad öppenhet medan andra skattningar indikerar att effekten kan vara så stor som 20 procent. Ser man närmare på dessa siffror finner man att en stor del av tillväxteffekterna kan tillskrivas den fördjupade integationen och regelharmoniseringen som eliminerat ett stor antal informella handelshinder inom EU. Den djupare integrationen är en process som uppkommer som ett krav på rättvisa konkurrensvillkor mellan företag när gamla handelshinder avskaffas. För varje nytt steg följer ett sökande efter balans i de nya villkoren. Detta är stor utmaning. Finner medlemsländerna missnöje i hur EU-samarbetet fungerar kan processen vändas och gå mot ökad protektionism, både inom EU och gentemot omvärlden. Givet de stora vinsterna som står att finna i handel och öppenhet så är balansgången mellan integration och nationell självständighet en nyckelfråga för EU:s framtida utveckling.

Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P. (2014). Sverige och EU: Handel och tillväxt -EU:s effekt på handel och ekonomisk tillväxt bland medlemsländerna. Rapport april 2014. Ratio.

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Author
Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P.
Publication year
2014

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  • Ph.D.

    Daniel Halvarsson

    +460760184541daniel.halvarsson@ratio.se

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