Daniel Halvarsson

Foreign ownership and transferring of gender norms

Publication year

2026

Published in

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique. First published 6 October 2026.

Abstract

This article examines whether foreign ownership transfers gender norms across borders and how those norms affect the gender pay gap within Swedish firms. Using matched employer–employee data from Sweden and dynamic difference-in-differences and high-dimensional fixed-effects models, the authors find that foreign ownership narrows the pay gap on average. Acquisitions by investors from more gender-equal countries reduce the gap, while estimated widening from less gender-equal countries is not robust.

Ratio Working Paper No. 374: The Impact of High-Skilled Migration on Productivity in Swedish Firms

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working paper series.

Abstract

The migration of highly skilled labor has received increasing attention due to its role in fostering innovation and productivity. This study explores the impact of foreign experts on the productivity of Swedish companies. Utilizing a difference-in-difference model with comprehensive register data from 1996 to 2015, the analysis reveals that Swedish companies hiring foreign experts experience a significant productivity increase of 6 to 11 percent within two to three years post-hiring. This effect is particularly pronounced in small and medium-sized enterprises and is slightly enhanced when excluding returning Swedish-born experts. Additionally, the study finds that both labor and capital productivity rise, along with a modest increase in wage incomes for other employees, estimated at 1.5 to 2 percent. However, the wage effects are less robust compared to productivity impacts. The findings underscore the importance of attracting foreign talent to bolster productivity. This research fills a crucial gap in the literature by focusing on the specific effects of foreign experts on total factor productivity in a small, knowledge-oriented economy like Sweden’s.

Halvarsson, D., Lark, O., Tingvall, P. G., Vahter, P., & Videnord, J.

Do gender norms travel within corporations? The impact of foreign subsidiaries on the home country’s gender wage gap

Publication year

2024

Published in

Applied Economics Letters, 1-5.

Abstract

In this note we study how the share of workers in a corporation located in a high gender wage gap country impacts the wage gap in their home country operations. Our findings support the hypothesis that firms with strong intra-firm linkages to a high gender wage gap country also display a relatively large gender wage gap at home.

Korpi, M., & Halvarsson, D.

Ratio Working Paper No 363: City Size, Employer Concentration, and Wage Income Inequality

Publication year

2023

Published in

Rati Working Paper Series.

Abstract

In this paper, we build upon a monopsony framework, suggested by Card et. al. 2016, which links firm level productivity and rent-sharing to wage inequality. Specifically, our research questions address i) to which extent labor market concentration across firms (within different types of locally situated industries) affects variation in wages among workers within these firms and industries, and ii) how this variation in turn spills over into economy-wide inequality (measured at the level of local labor markets). Using linked employer-employee full population data for Sweden, and an AKM modelling framework to separate between worker- and firm-level heterogeneity, our results suggest that higher firm-level fixed effects (a measure of rent-sharing) is associated with lower labor market employer concentration, something which affects average wage income among firms accordingly. Addressing wage income inequality by applying our model to different segments of the local labor market income distribution, we find that reduced average employer concentration in larger cities accounts for almost all variation in the (positive) link between city size-and wage inequality, except for the largest metropolises where it captures around 30-50 percent of variation depending on the income segment that we focus on.

Coad, A., Daunfeldt, SO. & Halvarsson, D.

Amundsen versus Scott: are growth paths related to firm performance?

Publication year

2022

Published in

Small Business Economics 59, 593–610 (2022).

Abstract

In the race to the South Pole, Roald Amundsen’s expedition covered an equal distance each day, irrespective of weather conditions, while Scott’s pace was erratic. Amundsen won the race and returned without loss of life, while Scott and his men died. In the context of firm growth, the Amundsen hypothesis suggests that smoother growth paths are associated with better performance in subsequent periods. We develop a new method to investigate how firms’ sales growth deviates from their long-run average growth path. Our baseline results suggest that growth path volatility is associated with higher growth of sales and profits, but also with higher exit rates. However, this result is driven by firms with negative growth rates. For positive-growth firms, volatility is negatively associated with both sales growth and survival, providing nuanced support for the Amundsen hypothesis.

The article can be accessed here.

Korpi, M., Halvarsson, D., Öner, Ö., A.V. Clark, W., Mihaescu, O., Östh, J. & Bäckman, O.

Ratio Working Paper No. 358: Native Population Turnover & Emerging Segregation: The Role of Amenities, Crime and Housing

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper.

Abstract

Using geo-coded full-population grid-level data for the three largest metropolitan areas in Sweden, 1993-2016, this paper i) estimates the level and pace of ethnic segregation, ii) examines possible tipping points in this development, and iii) gauges the importance of several mitigating or exacerbating factors (such as the mix of housing area tenure type, different types of amenities, and crime). We use OLS and 2SLS to estimate outcomes at two different geographic levels; 250 x 250 square meter grids and SAMS areas (roughly equivalent to US census tracts), respectively. On average, we find that for every 1 percentage point increase in immigration, native growth is reduced by around -0.3 percentage points. Crime levels exacerbate developments and factors such as housing area tenure-type mix and access to various amenities slows it down, but only marginally so. Using repeated and single random sampling for cross-validation, and the twin common methodological approaches as suggested in the literature, we estimate possible tipping points in these segregation developments. In contrast to most other studies in the literature, none of our potential tipping points are however statistically significant when probing their relevance in explaining factual population developments, suggesting a rather more continuous – albeit steeply so – segregation process rather than a structural brake. In terms of tipping point methodology, our main findings are that fixed-point estimation is less robust than R-square maximization for small geographical units, and that the former consistently selects for lower tipping-point candidates than the latter.

Halvarsson, D., Lark, O., Tingvall, P., Vatherd, P. & Videnord, J.

Ratio Working Paper No. 360: Do gender norms travel within corporations? The impact of foreign subsidiaries on the home country gender wage gap

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper series.

Abstract

In this note, we provide evidence that gender norms can be transferred within firms and across borders by means of foreign direct investment. Using microdata from both Sweden and Estonia, two countries with vastly different levels of gender inequality, we find that firms in Sweden with strong intra-firm linkages to Estonia display a relatively large gender wage gap at home.

Halvarsson, D., Lark, O., Tingvall, P. & Videnord, J.

Ratio Working Paper No. 361: Bargaining for Trade: When Exporting Becomes Detrimental for Female Wages

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper series

Abstract

In this paper we study the link between globalization of firms and gender inequality. Specifically, we examine how the need for interpersonal contacts in trade and gender-specific differences in negotiations are related to the gender wage gap. Our key finding is that export of goods that are intensive in interpersonal contacts widens the gender wage gap. The effect is robust across various specifications and is most pronounced for domestic exporting firms, which do not trade within multinational corporations but with external foreign partners, where the contracting problem is most distinct. We ascribe this result to a male comparative advantage in bargaining.

Daunfeldt, S. O., Halvarsson, D., Tingvall, P. G., & McKelvie, A.

Do Targeted R&D Grants toward SMEs Increase Employment and Demand for High Human Capital Workers?

Publication year

2022

Published in

Springer.

Abstract

Most previous studies on the employment effects of government R&D grants targeting SMEs are characterized by data-, measurement-, and selection problems, making it difficult to construct a relevant control group of firms that did not receive an R&D grant. We investigate the effects on employment and firm-level demand for high human capital workers of two Swedish programs targeted toward growth-oriented SMEs using Coarsened Exact Matching. Our most striking result is the absence of any statistically significant effects. We find no robust evidence that the targeted R&D grant programs had any positive and statistically significant effects on the number of employees recruited into these SMEs, or that the grants are associated with an increase in the demand for high human capital workers. The lack of statistically significant findings is troublesome considering that government support programs require a positive impact to cover the administrative costs associated with these programs.

The book can be downloaded here for free.

Ratio Working Paper No. 354: Foreign Ownership and Transferring of Gender Norms

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

In this paper, we study foreign ownership as a vehicle for transferring gender norms
across international borders. Specifically, we analyze how the wage differential between
men and women in Swedish firms is affected by the degree of gender inequality in the
home country of foreign investors. The results suggest that gender norms of the home
country matter—the gender wage gap in foreign-owned subsidiaries appears to increase
with the degree of gender inequality prevailing in the investors’ home market. This
finding is identified from within job-spell variation in wages and proves robust across
a series of specifications.

Coad, A., Daunfeldt, S-O. & Halvarsson, D.

Ratio Working Paper No. 344: AMUNDSEN VERSUS SCOTT: ARE GROWTH PATHS RELATED TO FIRM PERFORMANCE?

Publication year

2020

Published in

Abstract

In the race to the South Pole, Roald Amundsen’s expedition covered an equal distance each day, irrespective of weather conditions, while Scott’s pace was erratic. Amundsen won the race and returned without loss of life, while Scott and his men died. We investigate how firms’ sales growth deviate from the long-run average growth path. Our baseline results suggest that growth path volatility is associated with higher growth of sales and profits, but is also associated with higher exit rates. This is driven by firms with negative growth rates. For positive-growth firms, volatility is negatively associated with both sales growth and survival.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Asymmetric Double Type II Pareto Distributions

Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice

Publication year

2020

Published in

Abstract

This paper considers a flexible class of asymmetric double Pareto distributions (ADP) that allows for skewness and asymmetric heavy tails. The inference problem is examined for maximum likelihood. Consistency is proven for the general case when all parameters are unknown. After deriving the Fisher information matrix, asymptotic normality and efficiency are established for a restricted model with the location parameter known. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are then examined using Monte Carlo simulations. To assess its goodness of fit, the ADP is applied to companies’ growth rates, for which it is favored over competing models.

Daunfeldt, S-O., Engberg, E., Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P.

Working Paper no. 328 Wholesale firms: A catalyst for Swedish exports?

Publication year

2019

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

This paper examines the role of wholesale firms as facilitators of exports for small and medium-sized Swedish businesses. Our findings suggest that wholesale firms do facilitate access to difficult markets located outside Europe. For exports of a particular good to a given market, we observe a positive correlation between the export volumes of wholesale and manufacturing firms. Finally, we present evidence that supports a prediction from recent trade models with differentiated firms, namely that wholesale firms can facilitate exports for firms that are not themselves capable of direct exports.

Ratio Working Paper No. 327: Asymmetric Double Pareto Distributions: Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Application to the Growth Rate Distribution of Firms

Publication year

2019

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Halvarsson, D, Gustafsson, A. & Gustavsson Tingvall, P.

Subsidy Entrepreneurs: An Inquiry into firms seeking public grants

Publication year

2020

Published in

Journal of Industry Competition and Trade

Abstract

This paper studies the incentives and characteristics of firms that apply for, and eventually receive, one or multiple governmental grants intended to stimulate innovation and growth. The analysis departs from a contest model in which entrepreneurs are free to allocate their effort between production and seeking grants. The results suggest that highly productive entrepreneurs abstain from seeking grants, moderately productive firms allocate a share of their effort to grant seeking, and low-productivity firms allocate most resources to seeking grants. Due to their efforts in seeking grants, these low-productive subsidy entrepreneurs also have a relatively high probability of receiving the grants. Using comprehensive data over grants from the three largest grant-distributing agencies in Sweden, we find concordant evidence of a negative relation between the probability of receiving a grant and firm productivity. As we go from single- to multiple-grant-supported firms, this negative relation becomes more pronounced.

Engberg, E., Gustavsson Tingvall, P. & Halvarsson, D.

Direct and indirect effects of private- and government-sponsored venture capital

Publication year

2021

Published in

Empirical Economics

Abstract

Starting from the discourse on the impact of private and governmental venture capital investments, we examine the effects of different types of venture capital on firms’ sales, employment and investment. Our results show that both private and governmental venture capital investments boost firm sales with a delay of 2–3 years. The results suggest that VC impacts sales primarily through efficiency gains and to some extent, investments in physical capital investments, whereas no employment effects can be traced. Finally, we find indications of governmental VC investors being more prone to make follow-up investments in stagnating, non-growing firms than private investors.

Coad, A., Daunfeldt, S-O., & Halvarsson, D.

Bursting into life: firm growth and growth persistence by age

Publication year

2018

Published in

Abstract

Is firm growth more persistent for young or old firms? Theory gives us no clear guidance, and previous empirical investigations have been hampered by a lack of detailed data on firm age, as well as a non-representative coverage of young firms. We overcome these shortcomings using a rich dataset on all limited liability firms in Sweden during 1998–2008, covering firms of all ages and information on registered start year. Sales growth for new ventures is characterized by positive persistence, which quickly turns negative as firms get older. Young firms are more likely to have two consecutive periods of positive growth. While new firms experience an early burst of sustained growth, older firms have more erratic growth paths.
Related content: Working Paper No. 264

Entrepreneurship and income inequality

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Publication year

2018

Published in

Abstract

Entrepreneurship research highlights entrepreneurship as a simultaneous source of enhanced income mobility for some but a potential source of poverty for others. Research on inequality has furthered new types of models to decompose and problematize various sources of income inequality, but attention to entrepreneurship as an increasingly prevalent occupational choice in these models remains scant. This paper seeks to bridge these two literatures using regression-based income decomposition among entrepreneurs and paid workers distinguishing between self-employed (SE) and incorporated self-employed (ISE) individuals in Sweden. We find that the proportion of self-employed in the workforce increases income dispersion by way of widening the bottom end of the distribution, whereas the proportion of incorporated self-employed contributes to income dispersion at the top end of the distribution. Implications for research are discussed.
Related content: Working paper No. 281

Gustafsson, A, Gustavsson Tingvall, P, Halvarsson, D

Working Paper No. 303: Subsidy Entrepreneurs

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

In this paper, we study the selection process and incentives of ﬁrms that apply for and eventually receive one or multiple governmental grants intended to stimulate innovation and growth in supported ﬁrms. The analysis departs from a rent-seeking model of heterogeneous entrepreneurs who are free to allocate their effort between production and rent-seeking. In equilibrium, highly productive entrepreneurs choose not to enter the rent-seeking contest altogether, and moderately productive entrepreneurs allocate a share of their effort both to rent-seeking and production, whereas low-productivity entrepreneurs are incentivized to allocate most, if not all, of their effort to seeking grants and can thus be called subsidy entrepreneurs. These ﬁrms also have a higher probability of receiving grants. Using detailed data over all grants administered by the three largest grant distributing agencies in Sweden, the empirical analysis suggests that supported ﬁrms tend to have relatively low productivity, higher wages, and a larger share of workers with higher education than do non-supported ﬁrms. These characteristics become more pronounced as we move from single to multiple supported ﬁrms, thus supporting the notion of subsidy entrepreneurs.

Tingvall, P. & Halvarsson, D.

Working paper No. 291: The Impact of Employing Mismatched Workers on Firm Productivity, Wages and Profits

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Educational mismatch in the form of over- and under-educated workers has long been studied in relation to labor market outcomes for individual workers. While its consequences for individual workers and society are dire, we have only anecdotal evidence of its consequences for firms’ competitiveness. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the impact of mismatch on firm productivity, wages and profit. The results suggest an asymmetric effect from employing over- and under-educated workers. We find that while employing over-educated workers add to wage cost, there are no matching productivity gains, By contrast, the performance of under-educated workers more than compensates for their wage costs, leading to increased profits at the firm level. The net effect, therefore, in the form of gross operating surplus is significantly negative (positive) when firms employ over- (under-)educated workers. The results suggest that the positive effects primarily stem from under-educated young workers, whereas the losses can be traced to over-educated older workers.

Engberg, E, Halvarsson, D, Tingvall, P

Working paper No. 288: Direct and Indirect Effects of Private- and Government Sponsored Venture Capital

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

This paper studies the real effects of venture capital on targeted firms. Specifically, using a unique dataset with comprehensive information on private- and governmental venture capital investments, we examine the effects of such investments on firms’ sales, employment and investments in physical capital. The results suggest that both private and public venture capital boost firm sales two to three years after the investment. The sales increase can, in turn, partially be traced to an investment effect, and partially to increased efficiency, whereas no employment effects are found. Finally, our findings suggest that government investors are more prone than private VC firms to make follow-up investments in stagnating non-growing firms.

Gustavsson Tingvall, P., Engberg, E., & Halvarsson, D.

Reala effekter av statligt och privat riskkapital

Publication year

2017

Published in

Östersund: Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

Såväl privata som statliga aktörer erbjuder riskkapital till företag. Vi har undersökt om det framträder några skillnader mellan offentligt och privat riskkapital utifrån investeringarnas effekter på portföljföretagen. Tre centrala resultat är följande:
1. Försäljningen hos företag som mottagit riskkapital (VC) tar fart cirka 2–3 år efter investeringen. Den ökade omsättningen kan främst förklaras av ökad effektivitet
och nyinvesteringar i kapital (exempelvis maskiner och lokaler). Sysselsättningen tycks dock inte öka snabbare än i jämförbara bolag. Detta kan tolkas som att
kapitalet tillsammans med den rådgivning som följer med en VC-investering leder till nyinvesteringar och ökad kostnadseffektivitet.
2. Om vi jämför statliga och privata VC-investeringar finns inga större skillnader. Möjligen finns vissa tecken på att statliga investeringar ger en något svagare tillväxteffekt, men dessa skillnader är ofta för små för att betraktas som signifikanta. En närmare jämförelse mellan det privata och statliga VC-kapitalet indikerar dock att staten oftare håller kvar vid och fortsätter investera i stagnerande företag.
3. Till sist finner vi att de statliga VC-bolagen inte investerar mer i de tidigaste faserna än privata investerare. Detta trots att ett grundläggande motiv till statlig
intervention på riskkapitalmarknaden är att det privata kapitalet antas investera för lite i detta segment.
Detta leder till två slutsatser. För det första ser vi att en närmare analys av exitstrategier för de statliga VC-investerarna vore önskvärd. För det andra menar vi att de teoretiska motiven till statlig intervention på VC-marknaden pekar på att staten bör ligga något tyngre i de tidigaste faserna än de privata investerarna, eftersom det mest sannolikt är här det finns ett finansieringsgap. Vi finner ingen sådan skillnad. Idag är vår kunskap dock begränsad när det gäller den faktiska förekomsten av ett sådant gap och hur det i så fall skulle se ut. Innan nya direktiv om de statliga VC-bolagens investeringsprofil formuleras är det därför önskvärt med en närmare analys.
Vi ser alltså inte några dramatiska skillnader mellan statligt och privat riskkapital vad gäller deras tillväxteffekter. Detta kan både indikera att statliga riskkapitalister
gör ett bra arbete, eller att de kanske tar alltför små risker.

Gustavsson Tingvall, P., Halvarsson, D., & Engberg, E.

Firms’ responses to private- and government sponsored venture capital

Publication year

2017

Published in

Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

There is major political interest in promoting enterprise, entrepreneurship and economic growth, and the same goes for the significance of capital provision in this context However, interest on the part of society in facilitating small and medium-sized companies’ financing situation is far from new.

This report analyses actual outcomes of government and private venture capital investments (venture capital, VC) and real effects on employment, turnover and investments in real capital in portfolio companies. It also examines whether the effects differ between government and private VC, and which companies and phases the public actors invest in compared with the private actors.

The results do not demonstrate any dramatic differences between public and private VC investors in terms of growth effects, even though there are some tendencies towards a stronger growth effect via private venture capital. Further, the public VC companies do not differ from private investors when it comes to their propensity to invest in the earliest phases. A somewhat surprising result as it is the lack of venture capital in the earliest phases which is often used as an argument to justify the government’s role as an actor in the VC market. The public VC companies also seem to be more disposed to stay the course with, and continue to invest in, stagnant companies which do not take off and grow.

Entreprenörskap och inkomstspridning – hur företagare påverkar ojämlikheten

Publication year

2017

Published in

Abstract

Forskningen om inkomstojämlikhet har utvecklat modeller för att analysera inkomstspridning men har underlåtit att inkludera entreprenörskap – ett allt vanligare yrkesval. Vi undersöker hur antalet och typen av företagare påverkar inkomstskillnaderna i Sverige. Vi finner en tydlig polariseringseffekt av andelen företagare i arbetskraften: Egenföretagare ökar inkomstspridningen genom att flertalet har låga inkomster relativt löntagare, medan det omvända gäller för aktiebolagsföretagare. Påverkan sker således främst i svansarna av fördelningen, och den tycks vara som störst för egenföretagare.

Daunfeldt, S-O., Halvarsson, D., & Mihaescu, O.

High-Growth Firms: Not So Vital After All?

Publication year

2016

Published in

International Review of Entrepreneurship

Abstract

High-growth firms have received considerable interest recently since they create most of the new jobs in the economy. The purpose of our paper is to investigate the characteristics of high-growth firms prior to their growth period, and whether these characteristics differ across industries. Using data on a large sample of limited liability firms in Sweden for the period 2007-2010, we find that high-growth firms do not have the characteristics that we typically associate with successful firms. On the contrary, our results indicate that high-growth firms initially have low profits and a weak financial position. This might explain why studies have found that so few high-growth firms are capable of sustaining their high growth rates in subsequent periods, and thus question policies that are targeted towards these companies.
Related content: Working paper No. 263

Working paper No. 281: Entrepreneurship and Income Inequality

Publication year

2016

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Entrepreneurship research highlights individual entrepreneurship as a simultaneous source of enhanced income mobility for some but a potential source of poverty for others. Research on inequality has furthered new types of models to decompose and problematize various sources of income inequality in modern economies, but attention to entrepreneurship as an increasingly prevalent occupational choice in these models remains scant. This paper seeks to bridge these two literatures by applying regression-based income decomposition among entrepreneurs and paid workers, distinguishing between self-employed (SE) and incorporated self-employed (ISE) individuals in Sweden. We find that the proportion of self-employed in the workforce significantly increases income dispersion by way of widening the bottom end of the distribution, whereas the proportion of incorporated self-employed contributes only marginally to income dispersion at the top end of the distribution.

Daunfeldt, S-O., Gustavsson Tingvall, P., & Halvarsson, D.

Statliga innovationsstöd till små och medelstora företag – har de någon effekt?

Publication year

2016

Published in

Abstract

Syftet med denna rapport har varit att presentera resultat från en kontrafaktisk effektutvärdering av Vinnovas stödprogram Vinn Nu och Forska & Väx. Vi finner inga statistiskt säkerställda effekter av stödprogrammen på antalet anställda, arbetskraftsproduktiviteten, andelen högutbildade arbetare eller andelen forskare i de stödmottagande företagen. Den enda positiva effekt som kan observeras är att stöden lett till en ökad omsättning för stödföretagen jämfört med liknande företag som inte tilldelades stöd. Denna effekt är dock begränsad till företag med mindre än sex anställda och observeras endast under det första året efter det att stöden upphört.

Coad, A, Daunfeldt, S-O, Halvarsson, d

Ratio Working Paper No. 264: Bursting into life: Firm growth and growth persistence by age

Publication year

2015

Published in

Abstract

Is firm growth more persistent for young or old firms? Theory gives us no clear answer, and previous empirical investigations have been hampered by a lack of detailed data on firm age, as well as a non-representative coverage of young firms. We overcome these shortcomings using a rich dataset on all limited liability firms
in Sweden during 1997-2010, covering firms of all ages and information on registered start year. We find that sales growth for new ventures is characterized by positive persistence, whereas it quickly turns negative and remains negative as firms get older. It thus seems that the growth paths of older firms are buffeted around by environmental turbulence, and that older firms may have challenges in adapting their strategies to changing market conditions, whereas new firms experience an early burst of sustained growth.

Daunfeldt, S-O, Halvarsson, D, Mihaescu, O

Ratio Working Paper No. 263: High-growth firms: Not so vital after all?

Publication year

2015

Published in

High-Growth Firms: Not So Vital After All?

Abstract

High-growth firms have received considerable interest recently since they create most of the new jobs in the economy. The purpose of our paper is to investigate the characteristics of high-growth firms prior to their
growth period, and whether these characteristics differ across industries. Using data on a large sample of limited liability firms in Sweden for the period 2007-2010, we find that high-growth firms do not have the characteristics that we typically associate with successful firms. On the contrary, our results indicate that high-growth firms have low profits and a weak financial position. This might explain why studies have found that high-growth firms are seldom capable of sustaining their high growth rates in subsequent periods, and thus question policies that are targeted towards these companies.
Related content: High-Growth Firms: Not So Vital After All?

Daunfeldt, S-O., Johansson, D. & Halvarsson, D.

Using the eurostat-OECD definition of high-growth firms

Publication year

2015

Published in

Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy

Abstract

Recent studies have suggested that most firms do not grow, and that a small number of high-growth firms create most new jobs. High-growth firms have therefore attracted an increasing amount of attention from researchers and policymakers. However, there is no uniform definition of what constitutes a high-growth firm in the literature. Eurostat and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently recommended that high-growth firms should be defined as firms with at least ten employees in the start-year and annualized employment (or sales) growth exceeding 20% during a 3-year period. This definition would exclude almost 95% of surviving firms in Sweden and about 40% of new private jobs during 2005-2008. We therefore advise caution in using this definition.

Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Publication year

2015

Published in

Abstract

Most firms do not grow, and a small number of high-growth firms seem to create most new jobs. These firms have therefore received increasing attention among policymakers. The question is whether high-growth tends to persist? We investigate this question using data on 432,689 observations in Sweden during 1998-2008. We find that high-growth firms had declining growth rates in the previous 3-year period, and their probability of repeating high growth rates was very low. HGFs are essentially one-hit wonders, and it is thus doubtful whether policymakers can improve economic outcomes by targeting them.

Related content: Working Paper No. 197

Halvarsson, D. & Wennberg, K.

Hur växer kunskapsintensiva företag som sysslar med företagstjänster?

Publication year

2014

Published in

Kompetens för tillväxt

Abstract

I rapporten analyseras sysselsättningstillväxt i nystartade kunskapsintensiva tjänsteföretag (KIBS). Författarna presenterar en heltäckande studie av samtliga nya svenska KIBS-företag under slutet av 1990-talet och början av 2000-talet, en mycket expansiv period. Datamaterialet som används består av samtliga nya svenska KIBS-företag registrerade någon gång under perioden 1995-2002. Rapporten visar hur den teknologiska kunskapen hos företagens anställda tillsammans med företagsledningens erfarenhetsbaserade kompetens ger förutsättningarna att växa.

Resultaten indikerar att det i huvudsak är de interna resurserna, såsom andelen anställda med en teknologisk examen samt ledningsgruppens erfarenhetsbaserade kompetenser, som driver sysselsättningstillväxten i de nya KIBS-företagen. Slutsatserna visar att KIBS-företag är en viktig källa till nya jobb i Sverige och att de nya jobben främst skapas av erfarna entreprenörer som lyckas rekrytera kompetent teknisk personal.

Tingvall, P., Halvarsson, D. & Kokko, A.

Sverige och EU: Handel och Tillväxt

Publication year

2014

Published in

Vilket EU vill vi ha?

Abstract

Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P.

Sverige och EU: Handel och tillväxt

Publication year

2014

Published in

Abstract

EU är idag världens största marknadsplats. Forskningsinstitutet Ratio har i studien “Sverige och EU: Handel och tillväxt” funnit att Sveriges varuhandel med EU idag är nästan dubbelt så stor som den skulle ha varit utan medlemskap och handelsavtal. Den svenska varuhandeln har ökat med 85-95 %, som en direkt följd av EU och ökad öppenhet. Effekterna på tjänstehandeln är cirka hälften så stor som varuhandeln. EU har även bidragit till ekonomisk tillväxt bland medlemsländerna. Studien visar att Sveriges BNP ökat med 3-20 %, tack vare vår öppna ekonomi, långtgående frihandelsavtal och EU-inträdet.
Lågt hållna beräkningar pekar på att ca 3 procent av dagens BNP kan tillskrivas EU och ökad öppenhet medan andra skattningar indikerar att effekten kan vara så stor som 20 procent. Ser man närmare på dessa siffror finner man att en stor del av tillväxteffekterna kan tillskrivas den fördjupade integationen och regelharmoniseringen som eliminerat ett stor antal informella handelshinder inom EU. Den djupare integrationen är en process som uppkommer som ett krav på rättvisa konkurrensvillkor mellan företag när gamla handelshinder avskaffas. För varje nytt steg följer ett sökande efter balans i de nya villkoren. Detta är stor utmaning. Finner medlemsländerna missnöje i hur EU-samarbetet fungerar kan processen vändas och gå mot ökad protektionism, både inom EU och gentemot omvärlden. Givet de stora vinsterna som står att finna i handel och öppenhet så är balansgången mellan integration och nationell självständighet en nyckelfråga för EU:s framtida utveckling.

Halvarsson, D., Daunfeldt, S-V. & Gustavsson Tingvall, P.

Företagsstöd till innovativa små och medelstora företag

Publication year

2014

Published in

Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

Tillväxtanalys har utvärderat Vinnovas “Vinn Nu och Forska och Väx”-program mellan 2006 och 2010. Företagens utveckling har följts, under och upp till 5 år efter stöd, och där indikerar analyserna få statistiskt säkerställda positiva effekter av stöden.

Syftet med föreliggande rapport är dels fortsätta diskussionen kring de metodproblem som finns vid analyser och utvärderingar av selektiva företagsstöd, dels med hjälp av databasen och nya ekonometriska metoder genomföra en kontrafaktisk utvärdering av två program (VINN NU och Forska & Väx) och som utvecklats av Vinnova för att stimulera innovationsdriven tillväxt i små och medelstora
företag. Ett mål med studien är att förbättra kunskaperna kring den komplexa dynamik som kännetecknar innovation och entreprenörskap samt stimulera till diskussion om och under vilka förutsättningar olika typer av selektiva företagsstöd kan leda till innovationer och tillväxt.

I rapporten genomförs en statistisk analys av företagsstödens effekter på antal anställda, produktivitet, omsättning samt andelen arbetstagare med högre utbildning. Resultaten visar på mycket begränsade statistiskt säkerställda positiva effekter på dessa målvariabler under den tidsperiod (2006–2010) som analyserats. I rapporten och diskussioner med Vinnova har olika tänkbara orsaker diskuterats. Är den studerade tidsperioden för kort för att spåra påtagliga tillväxteffekter? Är storleken på stöden för små eller saknas kritisk massa för att uppnå statens intentioner att främja innovation och tillväxt? Vilka metodologiska begränsningar finns i en kontrafaktisk analys av de komplexa processer i företag som leder till teknisk utveckling och introduktion av nya produkter och tjänster på marknaden? Vilken roll kan selektiva instrument spela i närings- och innovationspolitiken?

Book

Firm Dynamics: The Size and Growth Distribution of Firms

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

This thesis is about firm dynamics, and relates to the size and growth-rate distribution of firms. As such, it consists of an introductory and four separate chapters. The first chapter concerns the size distribution of firms, the two subsequent chapters deal more specifically with high-growth firms (HGFs), and the last chapter covers a related topic in distributional estimation theory. The first three chapters are empirically oriented, whereas the fourth chapter develops a statistical concept.
Data in the empirical section of the thesis come from two sources. First, PAR, a Swedish consulting firm that gathers information from the Swedish Patent and registration office on all Swedish limited liability firms. Second, the IFDB-database, which comes from the Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis and comprises a selection of longitudinal register data from Statistics Sweden and contains business-related information on firms and establishments operating in Sweden, irrespective of their legal status.

Working paper No. 216. On the Estimation of Skewed Geometric Stable Distribution

Halvarsson, D

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

The increasing interest in the application of geometric stable distributions has lead to a need for appropriate estimators. Building on recent procedures for estimating the Linnik distribution, this paper develops two estimators for the geometric stable distribution. Closed form expressions are provided for the signed and unsigned fractional moments of the distribution. The estimators are then derived using the methods of fractional lower order moments and that of logarithmic moments. Their performance is tested on simulated data, where the lower order estimators, in particular, are found to give efficient results over most of the parameter space.

Halvarsson, D. (2013). ”On the Estimation of Skewed Geometric Stable Distribution”. Ratio Working paper No. 216.

Working paper No. 215. Identifying High-Growth Firms

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

This paper investigates the role(s) of high-growth firms (HGFs) in the robust growth-rate distribution. HGFs are identified as firms for which the growth-rate distribution exhibits power-law decay. In contrast to the traditional means of identifying HGFs, a distributional approach eliminates the need to specify an arbitrary growth rate or percentage share. The latter approach is illustrated by the growth-rate distribution for Swedish data on incorporated firms at the aggregate level and at the 2-digit industry level. The empirical results indicate that a power law is sometimes present in the growth-rate distribution and suggest that HGFs are rarer than previously thought.

Halvarsson, D. (2013). ”Identifying High-Growth Firms”. Ratio Working paper No. 215.

Working paper No. 214. Industry Dierences in the Firm Size Distribution

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

This paper empirically examines industry determinants of the shape of Swedish firm size distributions at the 3-digit (NACE) industry level between 1999-2004 for surviving firms. Recent theoretical studies have begun to develop a better understanding of the causal mechanisms behind the shape of firm size distributions. At the same time there is a growing need for more systematic empirical research. This paper therefore presents a two-stage empirical model, in which the shape parameters of the size distribution are estimated in a first stage, with firm size measured as number of employees. In a second stage regression analysis, a number of hypotheses regarding economic variables that may determine the distributional shape are tested. The result from the first step are largely consistent with previous statistical findings confirming a power law. The main finding, however, is that increases in industry capital and financial constraint exert a considerable influence on the size distribution, shaping it over time towards thinner tails, and hence fewer large firms.

Halvarsson, D. (2013). ”Industry Dierences in the Firm Size Distribution”. Ratio Working paper no 214.

Elert, N. & Halvarsson, D.

Ratio Working Paper No. 200. Economic Freedom and Institutional Convergence

Publication year

2012

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Francis Fukuyama argues that liberal democracy is the final form of human government and will become more and more prevalent in the long term. If this prediction is true, countries should converge in their political and economic systems toward liberal democracy, a form of institutional convergence. In this paper, we examine whether there is convergence in economic institutions, drawing on the literatures of economic convergence and of industrial organization. We use the Economic Freedom of the World-index over the period 1970-2009 to proxy for economic institutions. Our results indicate that countries with lower institutional quality experience faster institutional change than countries with higher quality, i.e., we observe institutional convergence. But countries with lower institutional quality have higher variability of institutional change. Using distributional analysis, we examine institutional transition probabilities, and find that the probability of a country ending up with high-quality institutions is high in the long-run. These findings support Fukuyama’s prediction.

Working Paper No. 197. Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Publication year

2012

Published in

Abstract

Most firms do not grow, and a small number of high-growth firms seem to create most new jobs. These firms have therefore received increasing attention among policymakers. The question is whether high-growth tends to persist? We investigate this question using data on 432,689 observations in Sweden during 1997-2008. We find that high-growth firms had declining growth rates in the previous 3-year period, and their probability of repeating high growth rates was very low. HGFs are essentially “one-hit wonders”, and it is thus doubtful whether policymakers can improve economic outcomes by targeting them.

Related content: Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Snabbväxarnas dynamik – Är hög företagstillväxt uthållig?

Publication year

2011

Published in

Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

Daunfeldt, S-O. & Halvarsson, D. (2011). Snabbväxarnas dynamik – Är hög företagstillväxt uthållig? Rapport 2011:15. Tillväxtanalys.

Related publications

Foreign ownership and transferring of gender norms

Publication year

2026

Published in

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique. First published 6 October 2026.

Abstract

Ratio Working Paper No. 374: The Impact of High-Skilled Migration on Productivity in Swedish Firms

Publication year

2024

Published in

Ratio Working paper series.

Abstract

Halvarsson, D., Lark, O., Tingvall, P. G., Vahter, P., & Videnord, J.

Do gender norms travel within corporations? The impact of foreign subsidiaries on the home country’s gender wage gap

Publication year

2024

Published in

Applied Economics Letters, 1-5.

Abstract

Korpi, M., & Halvarsson, D.

Ratio Working Paper No 363: City Size, Employer Concentration, and Wage Income Inequality

Publication year

2023

Published in

Rati Working Paper Series.

Abstract

Coad, A., Daunfeldt, SO. & Halvarsson, D.

Amundsen versus Scott: are growth paths related to firm performance?

Publication year

2022

Published in

Small Business Economics 59, 593–610 (2022).

Abstract

The article can be accessed here.

Korpi, M., Halvarsson, D., Öner, Ö., A.V. Clark, W., Mihaescu, O., Östh, J. & Bäckman, O.

Ratio Working Paper No. 358: Native Population Turnover & Emerging Segregation: The Role of Amenities, Crime and Housing

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper.

Abstract

Halvarsson, D., Lark, O., Tingvall, P., Vatherd, P. & Videnord, J.

Ratio Working Paper No. 360: Do gender norms travel within corporations? The impact of foreign subsidiaries on the home country gender wage gap

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper series.

Abstract

Halvarsson, D., Lark, O., Tingvall, P. & Videnord, J.

Ratio Working Paper No. 361: Bargaining for Trade: When Exporting Becomes Detrimental for Female Wages

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper series

Abstract

Daunfeldt, S. O., Halvarsson, D., Tingvall, P. G., & McKelvie, A.

Do Targeted R&D Grants toward SMEs Increase Employment and Demand for High Human Capital Workers?

Publication year

2022

Published in

Springer.

Abstract

The book can be downloaded here for free.

Ratio Working Paper No. 354: Foreign Ownership and Transferring of Gender Norms

Publication year

2022

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Coad, A., Daunfeldt, S-O. & Halvarsson, D.

Ratio Working Paper No. 344: AMUNDSEN VERSUS SCOTT: ARE GROWTH PATHS RELATED TO FIRM PERFORMANCE?

Publication year

2020

Published in

Abstract

In the race to the South Pole, Roald Amundsen’s expedition covered an equal distance each day, irrespective of weather conditions, while Scott’s pace was erratic. Amundsen won the race and returned without loss of life, while Scott and his men died. We investigate how firms’ sales growth deviate from the long-run average growth path. Our baseline results suggest that growth path volatility is associated with higher growth of sales and profits, but is also associated with higher exit rates. This is driven by firms with negative growth rates. For positive-growth firms, volatility is negatively associated with both sales growth and survival.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Asymmetric Double Type II Pareto Distributions

Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice

Publication year

2020

Published in

Abstract

Daunfeldt, S-O., Engberg, E., Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P.

Working Paper no. 328 Wholesale firms: A catalyst for Swedish exports?

Publication year

2019

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Ratio Working Paper No. 327: Asymmetric Double Pareto Distributions: Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Application to the Growth Rate Distribution of Firms

Publication year

2019

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Halvarsson, D, Gustafsson, A. & Gustavsson Tingvall, P.

Subsidy Entrepreneurs: An Inquiry into firms seeking public grants

Publication year

2020

Published in

Journal of Industry Competition and Trade

Abstract

Engberg, E., Gustavsson Tingvall, P. & Halvarsson, D.

Direct and indirect effects of private- and government-sponsored venture capital

Publication year

2021

Published in

Empirical Economics

Abstract

Coad, A., Daunfeldt, S-O., & Halvarsson, D.

Bursting into life: firm growth and growth persistence by age

Publication year

2018

Published in

Abstract

Entrepreneurship and income inequality

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Publication year

2018

Published in

Abstract

Gustafsson, A, Gustavsson Tingvall, P, Halvarsson, D

Working Paper No. 303: Subsidy Entrepreneurs

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Tingvall, P. & Halvarsson, D.

Working paper No. 291: The Impact of Employing Mismatched Workers on Firm Productivity, Wages and Profits

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Engberg, E, Halvarsson, D, Tingvall, P

Working paper No. 288: Direct and Indirect Effects of Private- and Government Sponsored Venture Capital

Publication year

2017

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Gustavsson Tingvall, P., Engberg, E., & Halvarsson, D.

Reala effekter av statligt och privat riskkapital

Publication year

2017

Published in

Östersund: Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

Gustavsson Tingvall, P., Halvarsson, D., & Engberg, E.

Firms’ responses to private- and government sponsored venture capital

Publication year

2017

Published in

Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

Entreprenörskap och inkomstspridning – hur företagare påverkar ojämlikheten

Publication year

2017

Published in

Abstract

Daunfeldt, S-O., Halvarsson, D., & Mihaescu, O.

High-Growth Firms: Not So Vital After All?

Publication year

2016

Published in

International Review of Entrepreneurship

Abstract

Working paper No. 281: Entrepreneurship and Income Inequality

Publication year

2016

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Daunfeldt, S-O., Gustavsson Tingvall, P., & Halvarsson, D.

Statliga innovationsstöd till små och medelstora företag – har de någon effekt?

Publication year

2016

Published in

Abstract

Coad, A, Daunfeldt, S-O, Halvarsson, d

Ratio Working Paper No. 264: Bursting into life: Firm growth and growth persistence by age

Publication year

2015

Published in

Abstract

Daunfeldt, S-O, Halvarsson, D, Mihaescu, O

Ratio Working Paper No. 263: High-growth firms: Not so vital after all?

Publication year

2015

Published in

High-Growth Firms: Not So Vital After All?

Abstract

High-growth firms have received considerable interest recently since they create most of the new jobs in the economy. The purpose of our paper is to investigate the characteristics of high-growth firms prior to their
growth period, and whether these characteristics differ across industries. Using data on a large sample of limited liability firms in Sweden for the period 2007-2010, we find that high-growth firms do not have the characteristics that we typically associate with successful firms. On the contrary, our results indicate that high-growth firms have low profits and a weak financial position. This might explain why studies have found that high-growth firms are seldom capable of sustaining their high growth rates in subsequent periods, and thus question policies that are targeted towards these companies.
Related content: High-Growth Firms: Not So Vital After All?

Daunfeldt, S-O., Johansson, D. & Halvarsson, D.

Using the eurostat-OECD definition of high-growth firms

Publication year

2015

Published in

Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy

Abstract

Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Publication year

2015

Published in

Abstract

Halvarsson, D. & Wennberg, K.

Hur växer kunskapsintensiva företag som sysslar med företagstjänster?

Publication year

2014

Published in

Kompetens för tillväxt

Abstract

Tingvall, P., Halvarsson, D. & Kokko, A.

Sverige och EU: Handel och Tillväxt

Publication year

2014

Published in

Vilket EU vill vi ha?

Abstract

Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P.

Sverige och EU: Handel och tillväxt

Publication year

2014

Published in

Abstract

Halvarsson, D., Daunfeldt, S-V. & Gustavsson Tingvall, P.

Företagsstöd till innovativa små och medelstora företag

Publication year

2014

Published in

Tillväxtanalys

Abstract

Book

Firm Dynamics: The Size and Growth Distribution of Firms

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

Working paper No. 216. On the Estimation of Skewed Geometric Stable Distribution

Halvarsson, D

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

Halvarsson, D. (2013). ”On the Estimation of Skewed Geometric Stable Distribution”. Ratio Working paper No. 216.

Working paper No. 215. Identifying High-Growth Firms

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

Halvarsson, D. (2013). ”Identifying High-Growth Firms”. Ratio Working paper No. 215.

Working paper No. 214. Industry Dierences in the Firm Size Distribution

Publication year

2013

Published in

Abstract

Elert, N. & Halvarsson, D.

Ratio Working Paper No. 200. Economic Freedom and Institutional Convergence

Publication year

2012

Published in

Ratio Working Paper

Abstract

Working Paper No. 197. Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?

Publication year

2012

Published in

Abstract

Most firms do not grow, and a small number of high-growth firms seem to create most new jobs. These firms have therefore received increasing attention among policymakers. The question is whether high-growth tends to persist? We investigate this question using data on 432,689 observations in Sweden during 1997-2008. We find that high-growth firms had declining growth rates in the previous 3-year period, and their probability of repeating high growth rates was very low. HGFs are essentially “one-hit wonders”, and it is thus doubtful whether policymakers can improve economic outcomes by targeting them.

Related content: Are high-growth firms one-hit wonders?