Ratio Working Paper No. 202. Elections and Municipal Economic Outcomes, Sweden 1974-1994

In this paper, we build upon a monopsony framework, suggested by Card et. al. 2016, which links firm level productivity and rent-sharing to wage inequality. Specifically, our research questions address i) to which extent labor market concentration across firms (within different types of locally situated industries) affects variation in wages among workers within these firms and industries, and ii) how this variation in turn spills over into economy-wide inequality (measured at the level of local labor markets). Using linked employer-employee full population data for Sweden, and an AKM modelling framework to separate between worker- and firm-level heterogeneity, our results suggest that higher firm-level fixed effects (a measure of rent-sharing) is associated with lower labor market employer concentration, something which affects average wage income among firms accordingly. Addressing wage income inequality by applying our model to different segments of the local labor market income distribution, we find that reduced average employer concentration in larger cities accounts for almost all variation in the (positive) link between city size-and wage inequality, except for the largest metropolises where it captures around 30-50 percent of variation depending on the income segment that we focus on.

Using geo-coded full-population grid-level data for the three largest metropolitan areas in Sweden, 1993-2016, this paper i) estimates the level and pace of ethnic segregation, ii) examines possible tipping points in this development, and iii) gauges the importance of several mitigating or exacerbating factors (such as the mix of housing area tenure type, different types of amenities, and crime). We use OLS and 2SLS to estimate outcomes at two different geographic levels; 250 x 250 square meter grids and SAMS areas (roughly equivalent to US census tracts), respectively. On average, we find that for every 1 percentage point increase in immigration, native growth is reduced by around -0.3 percentage points. Crime levels exacerbate developments and factors such as housing area tenure-type mix and access to various amenities slows it down, but only marginally so. Using repeated and single random sampling for cross-validation, and the twin common methodological approaches as suggested in the literature, we estimate possible tipping points in these segregation developments. In contrast to most other studies in the literature, none of our potential tipping points are however statistically significant when probing their relevance in explaining factual population developments, suggesting a rather more continuous – albeit steeply so – segregation process rather than a structural brake. In terms of tipping point methodology, our main findings are that fixed-point estimation is less robust than R-square maximization for small geographical units, and that the former consistently selects for lower tipping-point candidates than the latter.

We use full-population data to study trends in intergenerational absolute income mobility, measured as the ratio of children earning more than their parents, for 11 Swedish cohorts born 1972-1983. Absolute mobility during this period increases from 72% to 84% for men and from 76% to 86% for women-higher figures than in most other countries studied. To explain these results, we outline a novel decomposition strategy that accounts for cohort variation in parent-generation income inequality. All else equal, if income inequality is higher in the parent generation, more economic growth is required to achieve any given level of absolute mobility. We discuss implications for comparative research in intergenerational income mobility.