Working Paper No. 294: Technological Change and Wage Polarization – The Illiberal Populist Response - Ratio

Working Paper No. 294: Technological Change and Wage Polarization – The Illiberal Populist Response - Ratio

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Article (with peer review)

A transition probability analysis of material flows in the European aggregates industry

Grafström, J., & Rydén, S.

Publication year

2026

Published in

Construction Management and Economics, 1–14

Abstract

Recycled aggregates materials are often relegated to downcycled applications such as backfilling. Different barriers limit their reintegration into higher-value construction use. This paper develops a probabilistic model of material flows using a Markov chain framework to simulate transitions between four states: Input, Use/Waste, Recycling, and Disposal. The model draws on Eurostat data covering non-metallic minerals in 27 EU Member States (2014–2023) and incorporates barrier-adjusted transition probabilities reflecting economic, technological, institutional, and social constraints. Scenario simulations reveal that improvements in recycling probabilities can yield nonlinear gains in material retention. However, once structural barriers are introduced, system performance declines sharply—even under favourable technical assumptions. The results suggest that modest policy interventions may have outsized effects if targeted toward key transition points.

Article (with peer review)

Insider activism in the forest industry: An emerging phenomenon?

Grafström, J., & Karlson, N.

Publication year

2026

Published in

Forest Policy and Economics, 185, 103732

Abstract

Insider activism refers to situations where public officials use administrative discretion to advance personal or ideological preferences. Although the concept has received increasing attention in organizational and political science research, empirical evidence remains limited. This research note examines whether insider activism may influence regulatory practice in the Swedish forestry sector and how perceived enforcement uncertainty affects forest owners’ behavior. A survey of forest owner representatives in southern Sweden indicates low trust in regulatory objectivity and weak perceptions of legal security. Many respondents report experiences of officials acting beyond their formal mandate. The findings suggest that perceived activism-driven uncertainty encourages defensive strategies among forest owners, including early harvesting and reduced willingness to report environmental values.

Article (with peer review)

Time as a structural barrier for a circular economy

Publication year

2026

Published in

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 1–13

Abstract

Circular economy debates often acknowledge material lifespans and delays, but time is usually treated as a contextual issue rather than a structural barrier. The contribution is to reframe circular economy transitions as intertemporal processes by treating time as an endogenous structural barrier. A framework is developed that classifies goods into short-, medium-, and long-lived categories, demonstrating how lagged inflows and valuation biases suppress aggregate circularity even when technology improves. By making temporal mechanisms explicit, the analysis explains why indicators remain stagnant despite policy and efficiency gains. The contribution is to introduce time as an endogenous barrier, integrating insights from environmental and resource economics into circular economy theory and showing how delayed substitution shapes both firm investment and policy outcomes.