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PublikationArtikel (med peer review)

Stayin’ alive: Export credit guarantees and export survival

Ladda ner PDF

Sammanfattning

We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms’ export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms’ export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.

Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., & Yu, M. (2025). Stayin’ alive: Export credit guarantees and export survival. Applied Economics Letters, 1–7.

Detaljer

Författare
Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., & Yu, M.
Publiceringsår
2025
Publicerat i

Applied Economics Letters

Relaterat

  • Docent

    Magnus Lodefalk

    magnus.lodefalk@oru.se

Liknande innehåll

Rapporter

Who is afraid of AI? Who should be?

Engberg, E., Görg, H., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Längkvist, M., & ..

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Kiel Policy Brief, 2026.

Sammanfattning

  • Occupations that are highly cognitive, non-physical, and low in social interaction — typically higher-skill white-collar roles such as data analysts, software developers, and translators — turn out to be highly AI-exposed
  • Occupations requiring manual dexterity or intensive interpersonal contact — such as construction labourers or nursing aides — remain among the least exposed to current AI technologies
  • Aggregate occupational exposure to AI has risen markedly since 2010, with especially rapid gains in the late 2010s and early 2020s
  • Our baseline estimates show no detectable effect of AI exposure on total firm employment, while it is associated with clear skill upgrading
      • Engberg, E., Görg, H., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Längkvist, M., & .. (2026). Who is afraid of AI? Who should be?. Kiel Policy Brief, 2026.
    Working paper

    Ratio Working Paper No. 388: Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring

    Lodefalk, M., Löthman, L., Koch, M., & Engberg, E.

    Publiceringsår

    2026

    Publicerat i

    Ratio Working Paper Series.

    Sammanfattning

    We show that the age composition of employment within Swedish employers shifts after the arrival of generative AI, with no corresponding reduction in aggregate labour demand. Using 4.6 million job advertisements from Sweden’s largest recruitment platform, we find that the broad decline in postings since 2022 aligns with monetary tightening rather than AI, exploiting Sweden’s seven-month gap between the Riksbank’s first rate hike and the launch of ChatGPT as a timing test. We then use full-population employer–employee register data and an employer-level difference-in-differences design to estimate how AI exposure affects employment composition across six age groups. An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent. The widening age gradient suggests that generative AI reshapes hiring composition rather than aggregate demand, with the adjustment burden falling disproportionately on entry-level workers.

    Artikel (med peer review)

    Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany

    Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.
    Ladda ner

    Publiceringsår

    2025

    Publicerat i

    Research Policy

    Sammanfattning

    As a first step, the study documents novel evidence on changes in tasks and skills within occupations in Germany over the past two decades. It further identifies a distinct relationship between ex ante occupational work content and ex post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation through robots. Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements than workers in occupations primarily exposed to robots, suggesting that AI and robots substitute for different types of tasks and skills. The study also shows that changes in the task and skill content of occupations are related to their initial exposure to these technologies. Finally, using individual labour market biographies, the analysis investigates the relationship between AI exposure and wages. By examining the dynamic effects of AI exposure over time, the study finds positive associations with wages, with nuanced differences across occupational groups, thereby providing further insight into the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

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