PublikationArtikel (med peer review)

Stayin’ alive: Export credit guarantees and export survival

Sammanfattning

We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms’ export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms’ export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.

Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., & Yu, M. (2025). Stayin’ alive: Export credit guarantees and export survival. Applied Economics Letters, 1–7.

Detaljer

Författare: Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., & Yu, M.
Publiceringsår: 2025
Publicerat i: Applied Economics Letters

Relaterat

Docent
Magnus Lodefalk
magnus.lodefalk@oru.se

Liknande innehåll

Artikel (med peer review)

Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany

Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Research Policy

Sammanfattning

As a first step, the study documents novel evidence on changes in tasks and skills within occupations in Germany over the past two decades. It further identifies a distinct relationship between ex ante occupational work content and ex post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation through robots. Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements than workers in occupations primarily exposed to robots, suggesting that AI and robots substitute for different types of tasks and skills. The study also shows that changes in the task and skill content of occupations are related to their initial exposure to these technologies. Finally, using individual labour market biographies, the analysis investigates the relationship between AI exposure and wages. By examining the dynamic effects of AI exposure over time, the study finds positive associations with wages, with nuanced differences across occupational groups, thereby providing further insight into the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

Working paper

Working Paper No. 386 The Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs: Evidence from an AI subsidy Program.

Mark Hellsten, Shantanu Khanna, Magnus Lodefalk, Yaroslav Yakymovych

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Sammanfattning

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape labor markets, yet causal evidence remains scarce. We exploit a novel Swedish subsidy program that encouraged small and mid-sized firms to adopt AI. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design comparing awarded and non-awarded firms, we find that AI subsidies led to a sustained increase in job postings over five years, but with no statistically detectable change in employment. This pattern reflects hiring signals concentrated in AI occupations and white-collar roles. Our findings align with task-based models of automation, in which AI adoption reconfigures work and spurs demand for new skills, but hiring frictions and the need for complementary investments delay workforce expansion.

Artikel (utan peer review)

AI i offentlig sektor.

Tang, A.; Engberg, E.; Lodefalk, M.; Rydén, S.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Ekonomiskt Debatt

Sammanfattning

Artificiell intelligens (AI) har potential att bidra till att hantera kompetensbrist och arbetskraftsbehov i offentlig sektor. Vi undersöker med scenarioanalyser de effekter tekniken kan ha på produktivitet och arbetskraftsbehov. Dessutom analyserar vi utmaningar med tekniken. Resultaten visar på potential för både tydliga produktivitetsökningar och ett minskat arbetskraftsbehov, där även måttliga produktivitetsökningar kan leda till en ökad långsiktig tillväxttakt. För att detta ska realiseras krävs det dock omfattande insatser, inklusive kompetensutveckling och strategiskt ledarskap.

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