PublikationRapporter

Ekonomisk politik och födelsetal – en analys av effekter och evidens

Sammanfattning

Den femte skriften från regeringens utredning Framtid med barn. Studien analyserar hur ekonomisk politik påverkar födelsetal och konstaterar att strukturella reformer inom bostad, arbetsmarknad och välfärd är viktigare än enbart ekonomiska transfereringar för att vända Sveriges historiskt låga födelsetal.

Grafström, J., & Tillgren Pahlberg, N. (2026). Ekonomisk politik och födelsetal – en analys av effekter och evidens. Regeringskansliet.

Detaljer

Författare: Grafström, J. & Tillgren Pahlberg, N.
Publiceringsår: 2026
Publicerat i: Regeringskansliet

Relaterat

Filosofie doktor och vice vd
Jonas Grafström
0703475854jonas.grafstrom@ratio.se

Liknande innehåll

Artikel (med peer review)

When circular systems scale

Grafström, J. & Larsson, J.P.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 1–17

Sammanfattning

Circular economy systems are often designed with a focus on material flows and technological substitution, but their ecological performance is also shaped by geography. As a circular economy expands geographically, it encounters rising institutional diversity, logistical constraints, and behavioral divergence. The paper introduces a framework, based on lessons from the plastics industry, that models how spatial frictions—defined across regulatory, logistical, behavioral, economic, and coordination dimensions—accumulate with scale and undermine system performance. Costs escalate, and reliability deteriorates as circular systems become more spatially dispersed. These dynamics can result in delayed material recovery, inconsistent quality, and increased ecological inefficiency, even when technical feasibility exists.

Artikel (med peer review)

A transition probability analysis of material flows in the European aggregates industry

Grafström, J., & Rydén, S.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Construction Management and Economics, 1–14

Sammanfattning

Recycled aggregates materials are often relegated to downcycled applications such as backfilling. Different barriers limit their reintegration into higher-value construction use. This paper develops a probabilistic model of material flows using a Markov chain framework to simulate transitions between four states: Input, Use/Waste, Recycling, and Disposal. The model draws on Eurostat data covering non-metallic minerals in 27 EU Member States (2014–2023) and incorporates barrier-adjusted transition probabilities reflecting economic, technological, institutional, and social constraints. Scenario simulations reveal that improvements in recycling probabilities can yield nonlinear gains in material retention. However, once structural barriers are introduced, system performance declines sharply—even under favourable technical assumptions. The results suggest that modest policy interventions may have outsized effects if targeted toward key transition points.

Artikel (med peer review)

Insider activism in the forest industry: An emerging phenomenon?

Grafström, J., & Karlson, N.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Forest Policy and Economics, 185, 103732

Sammanfattning

Insider activism refers to situations where public officials use administrative discretion to advance personal or ideological preferences. Although the concept has received increasing attention in organizational and political science research, empirical evidence remains limited. This research note examines whether insider activism may influence regulatory practice in the Swedish forestry sector and how perceived enforcement uncertainty affects forest owners’ behavior. A survey of forest owner representatives in southern Sweden indicates low trust in regulatory objectivity and weak perceptions of legal security. Many respondents report experiences of officials acting beyond their formal mandate. The findings suggest that perceived activism-driven uncertainty encourages defensive strategies among forest owners, including early harvesting and reduced willingness to report environmental values.

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