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PublikationArtikel (med peer review)

No evidence of counteracting policy effects on European solar power invention and diffusion

Sammanfattning

In this paper, the questions of how support policies affect invention and diffusion of solar PV technology and whether the effect is heterogeneous and counteracting are investigated in order to help policy makers produce a better policy mix. The policies (and policy proxies) investigated are Feed-in-tariffs (FITs), Public R&D stock and flow, Environmental tax, and Environmental Policy Stringency Index. The policies are within the control of national government and no EU level policies are investigated. Evaluating policies on several dimensions is highly important since there is a risk that policies can promote one aspect of technological progress such as invention but derail diffusion. A Schumpeterian technological development approach is utilised on a panel dataset covering 23 European countries between 2000 and 2019. Two econometric approaches are employed, a negative binomial regression model is used to assess inventions and a panel data fixed effect regression is used for the diffusion model. The empirical findings suggest that no counteracting policy effects were present.

Grafström, J., & Poudineh, R. (2023). No evidence of counteracting policy effects on European solar power invention and diffusion. Energy Policy, 172, 113319.

Detaljer

Författare
Grafström, J., & Poudineh, R.
Publiceringsår
2023
Publicerat i

Energy Policy, 172, 113319.

Relaterat

  • Bild av Jonas Grafström, medarbetare på Ratio
    Filosofie doktor och vice vd

    Jonas Grafström

    0703475854jonas.grafstrom@ratio.se

Liknande innehåll

Rapporter

Ekonomisk politik och födelsetal – en analys av effekter och evidens

Grafström, J. & Tillgren Pahlberg, N.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Regeringskansliet

Sammanfattning

Den femte skriften från regeringens utredning Framtid med barn. Studien analyserar hur ekonomisk politik påverkar födelsetal och konstaterar att strukturella reformer inom bostad, arbetsmarknad och välfärd är viktigare än enbart ekonomiska transfereringar för att vända Sveriges historiskt låga födelsetal.

Artikel (med peer review)

When circular systems scale

Grafström, J. & Larsson, J.P.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 1–17

Sammanfattning

Circular economy systems are often designed with a focus on material flows and technological substitution, but their ecological performance is also shaped by geography. As a circular economy expands geographically, it encounters rising institutional diversity, logistical constraints, and behavioral divergence. The paper introduces a framework, based on lessons from the plastics industry, that models how spatial frictions—defined across regulatory, logistical, behavioral, economic, and coordination dimensions—accumulate with scale and undermine system performance. Costs escalate, and reliability deteriorates as circular systems become more spatially dispersed. These dynamics can result in delayed material recovery, inconsistent quality, and increased ecological inefficiency, even when technical feasibility exists.

Artikel (med peer review)

A transition probability analysis of material flows in the European aggregates industry

Grafström, J., & Rydén, S.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Construction Management and Economics, 1–14

Sammanfattning

Recycled aggregates materials are often relegated to downcycled applications such as backfilling. Different barriers limit their reintegration into higher-value construction use. This paper develops a probabilistic model of material flows using a Markov chain framework to simulate transitions between four states: Input, Use/Waste, Recycling, and Disposal. The model draws on Eurostat data covering non-metallic minerals in 27 EU Member States (2014–2023) and incorporates barrier-adjusted transition probabilities reflecting economic, technological, institutional, and social constraints. Scenario simulations reveal that improvements in recycling probabilities can yield nonlinear gains in material retention. However, once structural barriers are introduced, system performance declines sharply—even under favourable technical assumptions. The results suggest that modest policy interventions may have outsized effects if targeted toward key transition points.

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