Ratio Working Paper No. 316: Mitigating Information Frictions in Trade: Evidence from Export Credit Guarantees - Ratio

Ratio Working Paper No. 316: Mitigating Information Frictions in Trade: Evidence from Export Credit Guarantees - Ratio

Liknande innehåll

Who is afraid of AI? Who should be?

Engberg, E., Görg, H., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Längkvist, M., & ..

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Kiel Policy Brief, 2026.

Sammanfattning

Occupations that are highly cognitive, non-physical, and low in social interaction — typically higher-skill white-collar roles such as data analysts, software developers, and translators — turn out to be highly AI-exposed

Occupations requiring manual dexterity or intensive interpersonal contact — such as construction labourers or nursing aides — remain among the least exposed to current AI technologies

Aggregate occupational exposure to AI has risen markedly since 2010, with especially rapid gains in the late 2010s and early 2020s

Our baseline estimates show no detectable effect of AI exposure on total firm employment, while it is associated with clear skill upgrading

Engberg, E., Görg, H., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Längkvist, M., & .. (2026). Who is afraid of AI? Who should be?. Kiel Policy Brief, 2026.

Ratio Working Paper No. 388: Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring

Lodefalk, M., Löthman, L., Koch, M., & Engberg, E.

Publiceringsår

2026

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Sammanfattning

We show that the age composition of employment within Swedish employers shifts after the arrival of generative AI, with no corresponding reduction in aggregate labour demand. Using 4.6 million job advertisements from Sweden’s largest recruitment platform, we find that the broad decline in postings since 2022 aligns with monetary tightening rather than AI, exploiting Sweden’s seven-month gap between the Riksbank’s first rate hike and the launch of ChatGPT as a timing test. We then use full-population employer–employee register data and an employer-level difference-in-differences design to estimate how AI exposure affects employment composition across six age groups. An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent. The widening age gradient suggests that generative AI reshapes hiring composition rather than aggregate demand, with the adjustment burden falling disproportionately on entry-level workers.

Artikel (med peer review)

Stayin’ alive: Export credit guarantees and export survival

Lodefalk, M., Tang, A., & Yu, M.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Applied Economics Letters

Sammanfattning

We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms’ export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms’ export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.