Ratio Working Paper No. 358: Native Population Turnover & Emerging Segregation: The Role of Amenities, Crime and Housing

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Native Population Turnover and Emerging Segregation. The Role of Amenities Crime and Housing _WP 358
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Using geo-coded full-population grid-level data for the three largest metropolitan
areas in Sweden, 1993-2016, this paper i) estimates the level and pace of ethnic segregation, ii)
examines possible tipping points in this development, and iii) gauges the importance of several
mitigating or exacerbating factors (such as the mix of housing area tenure type, different types
of amenities, and crime). We use OLS and 2SLS to estimate outcomes at two different geographic
levels; 250 x 250 square meter grids and SAMS areas (roughly equivalent to US census tracts),
respectively. On average, we find that for every 1 percentage point increase in immigration,
native growth is reduced by around -0.3 percentage points. Crime levels exacerbate developments
and factors such as housing area tenure-type mix and access to various amenities slows it down,
but only marginally so. Using repeated and single random sampling for cross-validation, and the
twin common methodological approaches as suggested in the literature, we estimate possible
tipping points in these segregation developments. In contrast to most other studies in the
literature, none of our potential tipping points are however statistically significant when probing
their relevance in explaining factual population developments, suggesting a rather more
continuous – albeit steeply so – segregation process rather than a structural brake. In terms of
tipping point methodology, our main findings are that fixed-point estimation is less robust than
R-square maximization for small geographical units, and that the former consistently selects for
lower tipping-point candidates than the latter.

Korpi, M., Halvarsson, D., Öner, Ö., A.V. Clark, W., Mihaescu, O., Östh, J. & Bäckman, O. (2022). Native Population Turnover & Emerging Segregation: The Role of Amenities, Crime and Housing. Ratio Working Paper. No. 358: Stockholm.

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