Working Paper No. 378: Returns to AI skills - Ratio

Working Paper No. 378: Returns to AI skills - Ratio

Liknande innehåll

Artikel (med peer review)

Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany

Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Research Policy

Sammanfattning

As a first step, the study documents novel evidence on changes in tasks and skills within occupations in Germany over the past two decades. It further identifies a distinct relationship between ex ante occupational work content and ex post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation through robots. Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements than workers in occupations primarily exposed to robots, suggesting that AI and robots substitute for different types of tasks and skills. The study also shows that changes in the task and skill content of occupations are related to their initial exposure to these technologies. Finally, using individual labour market biographies, the analysis investigates the relationship between AI exposure and wages. By examining the dynamic effects of AI exposure over time, the study finds positive associations with wages, with nuanced differences across occupational groups, thereby providing further insight into the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

Working Paper No. 386 The Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs: Evidence from an AI subsidy Program.

Mark Hellsten, Shantanu Khanna, Magnus Lodefalk, Yaroslav Yakymovych

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Sammanfattning

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape labor markets, yet causal evidence remains scarce. We exploit a novel Swedish subsidy program that encouraged small and mid-sized firms to adopt AI. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design comparing awarded and non-awarded firms, we find that AI subsidies led to a sustained increase in job postings over five years, but with no statistically detectable change in employment. This pattern reflects hiring signals concentrated in AI occupations and white-collar roles. Our findings align with task-based models of automation, in which AI adoption reconfigures work and spurs demand for new skills, but hiring frictions and the need for complementary investments delay workforce expansion.

Artikel (med peer review)

Artificial intelligence, hiring and employment: job postings evidence from Sweden

Engberg, E., Hellsten, M., Javed, F., Lodefalk, M., Sabolová, R., Schroeder, S., & Tang, A

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Applied Economics Letters

Sammanfattning

This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014 to 2022 and full-population administrative data for Sweden. We exploit a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.