Temporary expats for exports: micro-level evidence

Information frictions make foreign trade risky. In particular, the risk of buyer default deters firms from selling abroad. To address this issue, many countries offer export credit guarantees to provide insurance to exporters. In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of guarantees by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in Sweden and rich register data on guarantees, firms and trade. Estimates from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design show large positive effects on the probability of exporting and the value of exports to the destination for which the guarantees are issued. These results are robust to an alternative approach using a difference-in-differences matching estimator. Further findings suggest that guarantees impact firms heterogeneously and play an important role in resolving buyer default risk and easing liquidity constraints. Larger impacts are observed in non-OECD countries, on smaller, liquidity constrained exporters and for firms selling products that face a relatively high cost of buyer default.

Business angels dominate early-stage investment in firms, but research on their effects on firms is scarce and limited by sample selection. To address sample selection, we propose using population data and we develop an algorithm for identifying business angel investments in such data. We illustrate this novel approach by applying it to detailed and longitudinal total population data for individuals and firms in Sweden. In our application, we focus on a subset of business angels—active business angels who are themselves successful entrepreneurs with a profitable exit. We then study active business angels’ effects on firm performance, using population data. Employing a quasi-experimental estimator, we find that the business angels invest in firms that already perform above par. There is also a positive effect on subsequent growth compared with control firms. However, contrary to previous research on business angels, we cannot find any impact on firm survival. Overall, the paper underlines the need to address sample selection when studying business angels and suggests using population data for identification.

We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms’ export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms’ export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.