MedarbetareDoktorand

Erik Engberg

Kontaktuppgifter

E-post: erik.engberg@ratio.se

Erik Engberg är doktorand i nationalekonomi vid Ratio och Örebro universitet. Erik doktorerar inom AI-Econ Lab, ett forskningsprojekt om artificiell intelligens, arbetsmarknad, och globalisering.

Relaterade publikationer

Artikel (med peer review)

Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany

Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Research Policy

Sammanfattning

As a first step, the study documents novel evidence on changes in tasks and skills within occupations in Germany over the past two decades. It further identifies a distinct relationship between ex ante occupational work content and ex post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation through robots. Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements than workers in occupations primarily exposed to robots, suggesting that AI and robots substitute for different types of tasks and skills. The study also shows that changes in the task and skill content of occupations are related to their initial exposure to these technologies. Finally, using individual labour market biographies, the analysis investigates the relationship between AI exposure and wages. By examining the dynamic effects of AI exposure over time, the study finds positive associations with wages, with nuanced differences across occupational groups, thereby providing further insight into the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

Artikel (utan peer review)

AI i offentlig sektor.

Tang, A.; Engberg, E.; Lodefalk, M.; Rydén, S.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Ekonomiskt Debatt

Sammanfattning

Artificiell intelligens (AI) har potential att bidra till att hantera kompetensbrist och arbetskraftsbehov i offentlig sektor. Vi undersöker med scenarioanalyser de effekter tekniken kan ha på produktivitet och arbetskraftsbehov. Dessutom analyserar vi utmaningar med tekniken. Resultaten visar på potential för både tydliga produktivitetsökningar och ett minskat arbetskraftsbehov, där även måttliga produktivitetsökningar kan leda till en ökad långsiktig tillväxttakt. För att detta ska realiseras krävs det dock omfattande insatser, inklusive kompetensutveckling och strategiskt ledarskap.

Working paper

Artificial Intelligence for Public Use

Lodefalk, M.; Engberg, E.; Lidskog, R.; Tang, A.

Publiceringsår

2025

Publicerat i

Örebro University School of Business Working Paper

Sammanfattning

This paper investigates the economic and societal impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the public sector, focusing on its potential to enhance productivity and mitigate labour shortages. Employing detailed administrative data and novel occupational exposure measures, we simulate future scenarios over a 20-year horizon, using Sweden as an illustrative case. Our findings indicate that advances in AI development and uptake could significantly alleviate projected labour shortages and enhance productivity. However, outcomes vary substantially across sectors and organisational types, driven by differing workforce compositions. Complementing the economic analysis, we identify key challenges that hinder AI’s effective deployment, including technical limitations, organisational barriers, regulatory ambiguity, and ethical risks such as algorithmic bias and lack of transparency. Drawing from an interdisciplinary conceptual framework, we argue that AI’s integration in the public sector must address these socio-technical and institutional factors comprehensively. To unlock AI’s full potential, substantial investments in technological infrastructure, human capital development, regulatory clarity, and robust governance mechanisms are essential. Our study thus contributes both novel economic evidence and an integrated societal perspective, informing strategies for sustainable and equitable public-sector digitalisation.

Working paper

Working Paper No. 380: Artificial Intelligence, Hiring and Employment: Job Postings Evidence from Sweden

Lodefalk, M.

Publiceringsår

2024

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Sammanfattning

This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014-2022 and universal register data for Sweden. We construct a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.

Working paper

Working Paper No. 371: Artificial Intelligence Tasks Skills and Wages: Worker-Level Evidence from Germany

Engberg, E., Koch, M., Lodefalk, M., & Schroeder, S.

Publiceringsår

2023

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Sammanfattning

This paper documents novel facts on within-occupation task and skill changes over the past two decades in Germany. In a second step, it reveals a distinct relationship between occupational work content and exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation (robots). Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements compared to workers in occupations exposed to robots. In a third step, the study uses individual labour market biographies to investigate the impact on wages between 2010 and 2017. Results indicate a wage growth premium in occupations more exposed to AI, contrasting with a wage growth discount in occupations exposed to robots. Finally, the study further explores the dynamic influence of AI exposure on individual wages over time, uncovering positive associations with wages, with nuanced variations across occupational groups.

Working paper

Working Paper No. 370: AI Unboxed and Jobs: A Novel Measure and Firm-Level Evidence from Three Countries

Engberg, E., Görg, H., Lodefalk, M., Javed, F., Längkvist, M., Monteiro, N., Kyvik Nordås, H., Pulito, G., Schroeder, S., & Tang, A.

Publiceringsår

2023

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper Series.

Sammanfattning

We unbox developments in artificial intelligence (AI) to estimate how exposure to these developments affect firm-level labour demand, using detailed register data from Denmark, Portugal, and Sweden over two decades. Based on data on AI capabilities and occupational work content, we develop and validate a time-variant measure for occupational exposure to AI across subdomains of AI, including language modelling. According to our model, white collar occupations are most exposed to AI, and especially white collar work that entails relatively little social interaction. We illustrate its usefulness by applying it to near-universal data on firms and individuals from Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal, and estimating firm labour demand regressions. We find a positive (negative) association between AI exposure and labour demand for high-skilled white (blue) collar work. Overall, there is an up-skilling effect, with the share of white-collar to blue collar workers increasing with AI exposure. Exposure to AI within the subdomains of image and language are positively (negatively) linked to demand for high-skilled white collar (blue collar) work, whereas other AI-areas are heterogeneously linked to groups of workers.

Artikel (med peer review)

Political failure: a missing piece in innovation policy analysis

Kärnä, A., Karlsson, J., Engberg, E., & Svensson, P.

Publiceringsår

2022

Publicerat i

Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1-32.

Sammanfattning

Within the field of innovation studies, researchers have identified systematic failures that hamper investment in R&D, innovation, and growth. Accordingly, researchers in this field often seek to provide policy recommendations on how to alleviate these failures. However, previous discussions have often been lacking considerations to the risks of political failures, meaning that policies fail to achieve their stated goals in a systematic manner. In response to this gap, this article aims to illustrate the concept of political failure and its relevance for innovation research. This is done by both discussing how political failure can impact innovation policy and by reviewing the prevalence of any discussions of political failure among top-ranked journals on innovation for the period 2010–2019, a total of 7161 articles. The results show that consideration of political failure is scarce, with a small number of papers that have a substantial analysis of political failures. If the awareness of political failures could be increased, this could lead to better policy recommendations with a more nuanced discussion of the risks and limitations of public policy.

The article can be accessed here.

Working paper

Working Paper no. 328 Wholesale firms: A catalyst for Swedish exports?

Daunfeldt, S-O., Engberg, E., Halvarsson, D., Kokko, A. & Tingvall, P.

Publiceringsår

2019

Publicerat i

Ratio Working Paper

Sammanfattning

This paper examines the role of wholesale firms as facilitators of exports for small and medium-sized Swedish businesses. Our findings suggest that wholesale firms do facilitate access to difficult markets located outside Europe. For exports of a particular good to a given market, we observe a positive correlation between the export volumes of wholesale and manufacturing firms. Finally, we present evidence that supports a prediction from recent trade models with differentiated firms, namely that wholesale firms can facilitate exports for firms that are not themselves capable of direct exports.

Artikel (med peer review)

Direct and indirect effects of private- and government-sponsored venture capital

Engberg, E., Gustavsson Tingvall, P. & Halvarsson, D.

Publiceringsår

2021

Publicerat i

Empirical Economics

Sammanfattning

Starting from the discourse on the impact of private and governmental venture capital investments, we examine the effects of different types of venture capital on firms’ sales, employment and investment. Our results show that both private and governmental venture capital investments boost firm sales with a delay of 2–3 years. The results suggest that VC impacts sales primarily through efficiency gains and to some extent, investments in physical capital investments, whereas no employment effects can be traced. Finally, we find indications of governmental VC investors being more prone to make follow-up investments in stagnating, non-growing firms than private investors.

Bokkapitel

Reala effekter av statligt och privat riskkapital

Gustavsson Tingvall, P., Engberg, E., & Halvarsson, D.

Publiceringsår

2017

Publicerat i

Östersund: Tillväxtanalys

Sammanfattning

Såväl privata som statliga aktörer erbjuder riskkapital till företag. Vi har undersökt om det framträder några skillnader mellan offentligt och privat riskkapital utifrån investeringarnas effekter på portföljföretagen. Tre centrala resultat är följande:
1. Försäljningen hos företag som mottagit riskkapital (VC) tar fart cirka 2–3 år efter investeringen. Den ökade omsättningen kan främst förklaras av ökad effektivitet
och nyinvesteringar i kapital (exempelvis maskiner och lokaler). Sysselsättningen tycks dock inte öka snabbare än i jämförbara bolag. Detta kan tolkas som att
kapitalet tillsammans med den rådgivning som följer med en VC-investering leder till nyinvesteringar och ökad kostnadseffektivitet.
2. Om vi jämför statliga och privata VC-investeringar finns inga större skillnader. Möjligen finns vissa tecken på att statliga investeringar ger en något svagare tillväxteffekt, men dessa skillnader är ofta för små för att betraktas som signifikanta. En närmare jämförelse mellan det privata och statliga VC-kapitalet indikerar dock att staten oftare håller kvar vid och fortsätter investera i stagnerande företag.
3. Till sist finner vi att de statliga VC-bolagen inte investerar mer i de tidigaste faserna än privata investerare. Detta trots att ett grundläggande motiv till statlig
intervention på riskkapitalmarknaden är att det privata kapitalet antas investera för lite i detta segment.
Detta leder till två slutsatser. För det första ser vi att en närmare analys av exitstrategier för de statliga VC-investerarna vore önskvärd. För det andra menar vi att de teoretiska motiven till statlig intervention på VC-marknaden pekar på att staten bör ligga något tyngre i de tidigaste faserna än de privata investerarna, eftersom det mest sannolikt är här det finns ett finansieringsgap. Vi finner ingen sådan skillnad. Idag är vår kunskap dock begränsad när det gäller den faktiska förekomsten av ett sådant gap och hur det i så fall skulle se ut. Innan nya direktiv om de statliga VC-bolagens investeringsprofil formuleras är det därför önskvärt med en närmare analys.
Vi ser alltså inte några dramatiska skillnader mellan statligt och privat riskkapital vad gäller deras tillväxteffekter. Detta kan både indikera att statliga riskkapitalister
gör ett bra arbete, eller att de kanske tar alltför små risker.

Rapporter

Firms’ responses to private- and government sponsored venture capital

Gustavsson Tingvall, P., Halvarsson, D., & Engberg, E.

Publiceringsår

2017

Publicerat i

Tillväxtanalys

Sammanfattning

There is major political interest in promoting enterprise, entrepreneurship and economic growth, and the same goes for the significance of capital provision in this context However, interest on the part of society in facilitating small and medium-sized companies’ financing situation is far from new.

This report analyses actual outcomes of government and private venture capital investments (venture capital, VC) and real effects on employment, turnover and investments in real capital in portfolio companies. It also examines whether the effects differ between government and private VC, and which companies and phases the public actors invest in compared with the private actors.

The results do not demonstrate any dramatic differences between public and private VC investors in terms of growth effects, even though there are some tendencies towards a stronger growth effect via private venture capital. Further, the public VC companies do not differ from private investors when it comes to their propensity to invest in the earliest phases. A somewhat surprising result as it is the lack of venture capital in the earliest phases which is often used as an argument to justify the government’s role as an actor in the VC market. The public VC companies also seem to be more disposed to stay the course with, and continue to invest in, stagnant companies which do not take off and grow.